MikeC
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Models generally not enthusiastic still for next week, exception being the 18Z ensembles from google's deep mind model


 
Generally still fairly unlikely anything develops.
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MikeC
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There's nothing too concerning on the long range. Remote possibility something forms after leaving the Carolina coast around June 29th, then looping back over Florida around July 1st and into the Gulf, but currently unlikely. (GFS keeps it weak). Google's deep mind has a few ensembles that develop it, however.
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MikeC
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0z Showed it in the west Gulf, 6z backed off, the google deep mind still has something trying to form off Florida then moving over Florida (some into the Gulf)
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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12z Deep mind
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12z Euro ensembles
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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The system offshore of NC is still around 10%, which seems accurate, the deep mind still shows 1/2 members developing it, but plenty aren't. It's setting up to be probably a fairly small area of rain, which won't help the heat wave all that much this week.
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cieldumort
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There are two very slim chance areas worth keeping an eye out on, the first simply because it is so close to home, the second for a very slim and outside chance of a long-tracker ~ that could be nothing more than a fish spinner even if it does get lucky and develops ~ but may become something to watch, at any rate.
1) Homegrown type feature as troughing digs into the eastern Gulf


2) Stout early season tropical wave presently in the far eastern Atlantic

No bid from on either area, yet, and there may never be. Slim odds, but worthy of general lounge mentions.
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