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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Long Range 2026 [Re: MikeC]
      #116210 - Mon Aug 31 2026 07:23 PM

Beyond TD#5 and Dolly there's not much to discuss in the Atlantic. East of Florida is an interesting convective area, but no vorticity to speak of, so that won't develop. Outside of that Nothing really in the open Atlantic, and anything new probably would come from something short fused and close by like TD#5/97L which may get to a strong tropical storm. North Atlantic may also have another short lived system. Getting any hurricanes this year continues to be a struggle in the Atlantic. On the pacific side, no such problem exists. Just comparing the overall conditions between the two basins shows the striking difference.

Atlantic:




East Pacific:
]

The non-AI models are significantly more east on the right most east pacific system (EP95) which means it could potentially impact Tijuana/Baja or Southern California. But that's incredibly unlikely also.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Long Range 2026 [Re: MikeC]
      #116228 - Thu Sep 03 2026 04:34 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Long Range 2026 [Re: MikeC]
      #116246 - Tue Sep 08 2026 12:34 PM

A good seasonal model this year could be created using insects. The Atlantic is crickets.

The next two weeks out (360 hours from time stamp initialization) from both the DeepMind and EURO AI ensembles imply a roughly 10% chance of a named storm in the Atlantic and perhaps at best a 20% chance of at least one unnamed TD.





Atlantic basin 2026 peak hurricane season

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