MikeC
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Beyond TD#5 and Dolly there's not much to discuss in the Atlantic. East of Florida is an interesting convective area, but no vorticity to speak of, so that won't develop. Outside of that Nothing really in the open Atlantic, and anything new probably would come from something short fused and close by like TD#5/97L which may get to a strong tropical storm. North Atlantic may also have another short lived system. Getting any hurricanes this year continues to be a struggle in the Atlantic. On the pacific side, no such problem exists. Just comparing the overall conditions between the two basins shows the striking difference.
Atlantic:
East Pacific:
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The non-AI models are significantly more east on the right most east pacific system (EP95) which means it could potentially impact Tijuana/Baja or Southern California. But that's incredibly unlikely also.
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cieldumort
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cieldumort
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A good seasonal model this year could be created using insects. The Atlantic is crickets.
The next two weeks out (360 hours from time stamp initialization) from both the DeepMind and EURO AI ensembles imply a roughly 10% chance of a named storm in the Atlantic and perhaps at best a 20% chance of at least one unnamed TD.
Atlantic basin 2026 peak hurricane season
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cieldumort
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I'm pretty sure this isn't what those calling for an above average Atlantic season this year had in mind for an ACE in the hole
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Today is September 10th, historically the peak of hurricane season, and nothing in the Atlantic right now. Modeling is sparse except for a likely faux Venezuela feedback storm (classic quirk of the current version of the that creates phantom storms in this area of the Caribbean as a result of mathematically feedback caused by the mountains and Lake Maracaibo ) showing up on the and making landfall in Florida on sep 21st..
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MikeC
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Stable air in the Atlantic continues to be the name of the game. 30% area is unlikely to get going, and it's getting more likely that September will end without a named storm. Although east pacific remains active, more of a chance something from there crosses over than actually forms in the Atlantic.
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