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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2736
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Bertha Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116071 - Tue Jul 21 2026 03:59 AM

Shear is back to getting the best of Bertha's valiant attempt to strengthen even more overnight, and is largely forecast to only increase for several days.

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cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2736
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Bertha Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116072 - Tue Jul 21 2026 04:06 AM

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CFHC

Reged:
Posts: 211
Loc: East Central Florida

Re: Bertha Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116076 - Tue Jul 21 2026 06:37 PM

Bertha has likely peaked today, shear is unrelenting, most of the ensembles have it over Louisiana, and it still appears the most likely, south side is still pulsing with activity. A non nino year bertha would be formidible.

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cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2736
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Bertha Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116078 - Thu Jul 23 2026 12:32 AM

23/0z may have forecast a fairly accurate initial state for Bertha as of 06Z Thursday. Something to keep in mind when considering the for the remainder of Bertha's run.

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cieldumort
Moderator

Reged:
Posts: 2736
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Bertha Lounge

[Re: cieldumort]
#116079 - Thu Jul 23 2026 02:20 AM

In light of Bertha's current state and the weather being produced in the Gulf south of Louisiana and east of Texas overnight, the runs that bring Bertha up to a hurricane-force storm shown here now seem entirely plausible.
Hurricane-force winds already occurred earlier tonight within Bertha's MCV (though not necessarily representative of a surface low ~ we simply have no recon in there at this time).

HAFS-A