Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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So far most news channels are saying we are most likly going to have rain all this week. Earlier today in central florida im sure most of you got some heavy rain and lightning. I went outside for a little while and got some pictures of the storm when i get the chance to develop them i will try to put them on here. And remember to keep an umbrilla or a rain coat in the car because it looks as if we will get the predicted rain and storms.
Spike 
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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On Sunday, July 4th, an evening thunderstorm recorded 3.90 inches of rain - most of it in about 90 minutes. It was the third highest single day rainfall total at the house in the past ten years. No flooding at all - because the water table has been quite low here in east central Florida.
ED
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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Looking a bit into the 10 day forcast
today scattered t-storm and actually thats the forcast for the rest of this week it seems. So dont forget to keep an umbrilla in your car or office because its going to be a wet week
Spike
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Spike...
Not to bust your chops or anything, but isn't that the forecast for most of Florida from May thru September?
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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Yea it usually is quite wet this time of the year sorry. I wont do any more stupid posts. I'm just tryin to give you all a heads up if your planning on going ot the beach or somethin eather way sorry not gonna happen again.
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Spike,
See, this is what I'm talkin about. You're NOT making stupid posts, just OBVIOUS posts. You've acquitted yourself nicely with the storm chasing posts. Don't quit posting! Just don't (like one of the weathermen on LI) say, "well there's a 50% chance of rain. That means there's also a 50% chance it WON'T rain. DUH!
If you have a question or a concern, by all means ask...the folks who post here are super-knowledgable, and they'll answer your ???s. I'm only saying don't state the obvious.
Keep up your love of the weather...it's a wonderful thing.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Spike
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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Ok, well im still sorry for posting stupidly or "obvious". And yea I dont think anything could turn my love from weather away ,
Spike
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Spike,
Keep posting. Keep asking... keep learning. That's what most of the folks on this board will help you with. Giving the 10-day (which is a sham anyway) forecats is a good start! And please, do rent Twister. You won't regret it, that's fer sher!
Have a great evening!
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Thunderstorm this evening dropped 3.24" at the house with some minor flooding in the area. About 3 inches of the total fell in one hour. I've now received 7.45 inches of precip in the first 7 days of July.
Cheers,
ED
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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In case some didn't realize, when a rain chance is given in a NWS forecast, say its 50%. It doesn't mean 50% it will rain and 50% it won't, but rather the percentages represent areal coverage of precipitation. So 50% would mean that 50% of an area is expected to be covered by precipitation. I think Ed might be able to back me up on this.
Also, anyone who can obtain a copy of todays edition of the Orlando sentinel, there is a very nice picture of a lightning strike plastered right on the front and a very interesting article inside it. With recent injuries and deaths from lightning, i think the NWS and the media are trying to get a safety message out to people, especially at this time of the year.
Here is an answer to a question that the NWS gave someone, when they asked about rain chances
"What does "50 percent chance of rain" mean? A lot of people think "It's either going to rain or it isn't. I could make that good of a forecast!" That's not what we mean by a 50 percent rain chance! In order to calculate whether it will rain at a point, say at your house, there are two uncertainties that must be factored. 1) What is the probability it will rain in the area, say Brevard county today? 2) What percent of the area will receive rain if it does indeed occur? Here is the mathematical way of stating this: POP = AP x AC, where POP is the Probability of Precipitation at a point (your house), AP is the Areal Probability (Brevard County), and AC is the Areal Coverage. This equation is simplified during the summer since the AP is usually 100% (it rains most every day somewhere in Brevard county). In essence, what we forecast in the summer is the percent of coverage. To describe the rain chances in our weather forecasts, we use the following uncertainty terms / areal qualifiers: 10-20% is slight chance / isolated, 30-40% is chance / scattered, 50 percent is good chance / scattered, 60-70 percent is likely / numerous. Rain chances of 80 percent or higher are not given an uncertainty term or areal qualifier...in other words, expect rain! "
Edited by Jamiewx (Thu Jul 08 2004 12:13 PM)
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