The last couple of days the tropics in the Altanic Basin have been quiet after Charley but now the threat for cyclone devlopment now lurks in the Eastern Pacific, there is a possiblity of a hurricane forming that would later affect areas of land and water around there. It is located 1425 NM South West of the southern tip of Baja California.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
the reality is that florida need not worry until the wave or depression is close and atmospheric indicators(such as the jetstream) dictate the storm will head in the general direction of one of our coasts. where it will hit is not certain until it is very close to land. therefore all on the part of the affected coast need to make plans to deal with the storm, period.
Today it seems the reason for decreased activity is because of NAO dropping into the negatives, which casues the Norhten Jetstream to be pushed into the favorable area for devlopment of hurricanes, this jetstream (as they call it) causes less moist and colder air to supress tropical devlopment and cause subsidence. Also I believe there is a shortwave trough around the cape verde islands area, if this trough weakens the tropics will regain their activity.
-------------------- "I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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