Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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Hey everyone-back posting here for the first time since pre-Charley in Florida. We were okay in our location...but a couple of trees were blown down in our back yard (away from house, fortunetly). Additionally, we were without power until the Monday after the storm hit. Boy did it get hot in the house...back to tropics!
96L is pretty interesting at this time. It isn't developing as quickly as some thought it was this morning, although I'd say it is safe to bet on TD 6 coming into official existence by 11:00 PM this evening or 5:00 AM tomorrow morning. Looks like the low may be experiencing a dirunal decrease in convection, although the very last IR image showed new convection forming near the center. The shear environment ahead is looking quite favorable, which should allow for a steady strengthening after the system really gathers itself. This leads me to my next point...
The center of this system is low at this point, latitude-wise. The lastest sat images don't really show much in the way of a northerly component in the track yet. The latest run shows the system curving towards the nw and n from 40-43 W. I pretty much agree that this will begin to track with a more northerly component by then, but how much of a northerly component will depend on how strong the system is as well as how much the Central Atlantic ridging breaks down. Also...the system may not get pulled northward rapidly, but it may do so under 10 mph. If this does indeed occur, I'll have serious doubts as to whether any possible troughing would be around long enough for the storm to be completely picked up.
Like some others on this board, I think that there exists a decent chance that this system turns more westward in the long-range. Don't be surprised if forecasts fish at first...followed by more westerly tracks.
Hey, though, 96L could just as well fall apart!  
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Loc: EC Florida
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BTW Lt, although the can certainly weaken systems, it is generally too shallow (in 200 mb layer) to turn storms out to sea. Anyone that has witnessed the shear a storm apart (ala Debby) knows that its shearing effects do more than enough to damage developing storms.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Saw a comment about the "troughy" nature to this season in the thread somewhere. The predominant pattern at 500mb (mid-levels) across the U.S. this summer has been of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. This has led, in general, to more "troughiness" along the coast, as short wave troughs (and associated surface systems) ride around the base of the upper longwave trough across the Southeast.
This would favor a ridge in the central/western Atlantic, which would steer anything that made it to, say, the Leewards towards the west. Storms would either recurve further out to sea, like Danielle, or make it near to the coast and recurve then (Charley, Bonnie). Note that this is a big simplifcation of the overall pattern, but serves well to explain a couple of things here.
Now, however, we are seeing the opposite pattern take shape, with a near-zonal to ridge in the east/trough in the west pattern. This would favor a trough in the western/central Atlantic and a ridge out by the Cape Verdes, leading to an increased likelihood for fish spinners, at least in the short-term (again, a simplication of things, but a fair one at least). Anything near the coast, however, would tend to keep a western track -- save for any possible development off of the coast in the immediate short-term (i.e. the lows off of the Ga & NC/SC coasts) while the pattern changes.
The overall pattern tends to change every 10-14 days or so, meaning I think we'll see an increased likelihood for some long-track storms a bit further down the road, closer to the peak of the season. Not ruling one out now, but feel it's less likely.
Just a few thoughts.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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T #'s are up to 1.5 now on 96L, also the number 1 floater is now pointed over the storm., IMO already looks like a TD, we'll see if the upgrades it tonite or waits til the morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
TG
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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TG,
Sure looks good on the WV imagery. I was thinking if it weren't classified at 5:00 it wouldn't be at 11:00. Now I'm not so sure. There's probably no need to rush classification, but no good reason not too either...since I'm banking an entire blackbird pie on it becoming a hurricane and one to watch. Frank P. hooked me up with some really good crow roasting recipes a while ago, but I'm always hungry for more.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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We have T.D. 6, first advisory probably at 11pm, has changed the invest to 06L noname.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Crow for dinner again, and now leftovers. Can be far behind? For those who haven't participated, HF has put up a "challenge" in the storm forum for location & classification of TD6...you may want to put up some guesses for the next two coordinate/speed timeframes. Surely HF will accept late guesses.
(No, I think that its too late for the challenge - there is only one timeframe remaining and the idea was to see how good you might be at making a 3-day forecast, not a one-day forecast.)
ED
(i'll make another challenge in a day or two. if the progs are near the mark right now, it should be over the open atlantic through the forecast period.. not like there won't be time).
HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Aug 24 2004 10:50 PM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Phil, don't think you'll have to eat that backbird pie, think it will be a cane in 2-3 days. New model runs now trending more westward, but still should pass north of the islands, could be some interesting days ahead.
TG
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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Crow's getting to be a frequent dish up at Phil's place, still i don't think you'll be eating much more of it, conditions appear favorable as Kevin has said for some strengthening to occur. Not sure about the eventually track, latest model guidance differs past 45W, but most agree on west or perhaps west northwestward motion to 45W, the degree of northerly component varies significantly there after.
here is the 11pm Advisory forecast Track
NHC taking it north of the islands, this being in agreement with most of the models with the exception of a few.
Edited by Jamiewx (Tue Aug 24 2004 10:34 PM)
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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...Sixth tropical depression of the season forms...
Satellite images this evening indicate that a tropical depression
has formed from the strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression
Six was located near latitude 11.2 north...longitude 36.0 west or
about 870 miles...1400 km...west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28
km/hr...and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could
become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.2 N... 36.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004
Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern associated with the
strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has become better
organized over the past several hours...with an increase of deep
convection near the low-level circulation center. Therefore the
system is being numbered at this time. There is pronounced
upper-level outflow to the North...East...and south of the
center...but outflow is limited to the east. Analyses from the
University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate weak vertical shear along
the projected path of the cyclone to about 50w longitude. Farther
west and north...the shear may increase as suggested by the latest
200 mb forecast from the model. Therefore strengthening may be
inhibited late in the forecast period...although this is highly
uncertain.
Initial motion is slightly north of west at around 15 kt. Dynamical
model predictions indicate a weakening of the mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several
days...due to the incursion of a trough into the central Atlantic.
This trough is at rather high latitudes however...so it is not
likely to play a direct role in steering the tropical cyclone.
Notwithstanding...the track guidance generally shows a slowing of
the forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the
forecast period. The track forecast follows this scenario...but
is a little to the south and faster than most of the models in view
of the current motion which seems to be accelerating to the west
as we speak.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/0300z 11.2n 36.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 11.8n 38.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 12.4n 40.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 13.0n 43.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0000z 13.8n 45.1w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/0000z 16.0n 48.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 29/0000z 18.0n 51.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 53.0w 70 kt
$$
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Post deleted by danielw
Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 24 2004 10:56 PM)
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EriktheFled
Unregistered
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<<Fled, is this based on sound meterological reasoning or just a gut feel...either way it's OK, was just wondering on what you are basing that statement.>>
I won't lie, it's based on a gut feeling according to the way the few storms we've already had have acted. Of course, as another poster has mentioned, there is a constant oscillation between high and low amplitude pattern.
However, even for the past several seasons, the general pattern has been for trofs off the East Coast to steer storms out to sea, a factor which Gray himself has mentioned in his reports as being the reason far fewer major hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast--in particular, the East Coast--since 1995 than would be dictated by the long-term averages.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it'll be a trip if this forecast track with the first advisory of TD six plays out. fifteen degrees west over five days, in the deep tropics.. that's some kind of slow. if i had to make a best guess right now i'd shift the forecast track slightly left and give the storm a good deal more westward progression by the end of the period.. to around 500 miles east/ene of the virgin islands. there's been a good deal of variation in the model strength of the ridging progged near the east coast past the forecast period.. if the storm gets underneath it the ultimate progression is still uncertain (every other run erodes the ridge enough to keep the coast clear, but a number show enough to take it all the way west by labor day weekend).
still fairly convinced on close in activity later this week off the southeast coast. thinking very close in, but some model runs indicating that their may be a consolidation further east, out near 70-75w. just a broad unfocused area of disturbed weather at this point.
that's about all i can say. aside from: new thread on the way.
HF 0302z25august
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