Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Thank you, Richard. It's tempting to rely on the models too much, when there are so many uncertainties. There is a certain relief at being able to point to a line on a map and say, "There. It's going there." But in reality that line is just a guidance, and not gospel truth, and it's easy to forget that.
Then you have learned something that is both significant and often overlooked and unlearned by your peers, and sometimes by myself and worse, sometimes by the experts themselves. Good luck...
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I remember Andrew and for 2 straight days they said it will turn WNW or NW. Andrew instead took a western beeline and stayed between 25.3 and 25.8 for 66 straight hours. Why? Steeered by the strong high pressure to its north. Today, we also have a strong high pressure to the north of Jeanne. This storm could just keep going west, maybe WNW and not make what is looking more and more as too sharp a turn to the right. We shall see. I spent over a half hour on line for gas at 5:30 am today, crazy!!!!
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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I spent over a half hour on line for gas at 5:30 am today, crazy!!!!
I have a feeling that if your city name includes 'Beach", you will find more lines, longer lines and less gas. ....but it is nice the *rest* of the year! 
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Shalafi
Weather Guru
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Posts: 123
Loc: Altamonte Springs
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New post up....
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Bryan
What doesn't kill us only makes us stronger.
God bless
I know very litte about weather. I'm here to learn mostly but will post friendly replies now and then. So if you don't want to see non-weather comments ignore me now. Thanx!
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Loc:
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Yes, Jeanne will decide where she wants to go. Until then, we have some incredible tools and guidance at our disposal to help anticipate her most likely path and intensity range. As points out, intensity is probably the most difficult aspect of these storms to forecast with great accuracy. Combine that with a storm expected to recurve to the north and east, and you have a real challenge. Based on current guidance, which has become increasingly consistent in exposing a northward weakness by early Sunday morning, I expect Jeanne to hug the east coast from Palm Beach northward, without the center actually making landfall.
As with most hurricanes scraping the coast, it is the coastal areas which have to be most prepared for some storm surge flooding (esp. forward right quadrant), but only briefly from Palm Beach to Daytona Beach, then offshore. Jeanne (possibly reaching cat 3 strength) will most likely affect coastal areas with cat 2 winds (96-110 mph) initially, dropping to cat 1 (74-95 mph) north of Daytona Beach. Based on the current forecast, damaging wind gusts exceeding 50 mph are possible up to 50 miles inland to the left of the actual storm track. Trees, mobile homes, and suspended objects are most susceptible to being damaged and causing injury and damage to nearby structures.
(I second the applause for 's maps!)
“Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.”
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Answer posted to new topic area
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
Edited by Ricreig (Fri Sep 24 2004 08:50 AM)
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VolusiaMike
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 63
Loc: Ormond Beach, FL
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I am looking for the link to the color water vapor loop. Anybody got it handy?
TIA
Michael
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