danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Gee! The weather turns cold, I take a few nights off and look what happens.
Ricreig and Phil thanks for the kind words. I can thank Mike and John for the opportunity, as they, and others started the site.
I enjoy trying to keep everyone updated. Folks in the target areas may not realize how much information they are feeding back into the board. Some of your posts were the exact reason that people 'Decided to Evacuate' this season.
To Mike and John-the systems are great.
Meteorologists-Great bunch. They can give the info to you at a Scientific level and/ or break it down for the rest of us.
The Mods-Ricreig put it nicely. "You Phil, sane or not". Well Phil and I have shared many thoughts, notes and jokes. I 'think' he's sane! 
To everyone that posts, reads or 'lurks' here. I hope that things are returning to some state of Normal for each of you.
Hurricane season has 24 days to go at this point. Check in often. Forum-"Newest" usually has the most current topic displayed. Everything and nothing can be quite interesting reading.
Keith234- I need to know your sources of information. So I can study! You can PM me. You and Phil are in charge of the Long Island Branch of !
BTW- Its not easy trying to update others during the Elections. Very rapid data speed.
If you think Weather Models are unpredicatable watch 4 networks at the same time. Different Electoral and Popular Vote totals!
Edited by danielw (Fri Nov 05 2004 08:58 PM)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'd like to encourage everyone who posts to update their profile to include their E-mail address...this way, we can keep in touch without having to go thru during the winter.
I always check , but I'm sure many do not when there is really no action.
It's in my profile, but all y'all can reach me at phecken@yahoo.com if ya wanna shout!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Good idea, Phil!
Well, it does seem as though this season started and finished abruptly, with a concentrated period of activity. However, we might just see another storm as the season draws it's last breath. Let us look at some seasons that have experienced some later storms, by which I mean storms on or after this date.
-1953, Tropical Storm #13 (23 - 26 Nov.) and Tropical Storm #14 (7 - 9 Dec.)
-1954, Tropical Storm #10 (16 - 21 Nov.)
-1956, Hurricane Greta (30 Oct. - 7 Nov.)
-1961, Hurricane Jenny (1 - 9 Nov.) and Tropical Storm Inga (5 - 8 Nov.)
-1964, Tropical Storm #12 (5 - 10 Nov.)
-1966, Hurricane Lois (4 - 14 Nov.)
-1969, Hurricane #17 (30 Oct. - 7 Nov.) and Hurricane Martha (21 - 25 Nov.)
-1971, Tropical Storm Laura (12 - 22 Nov.)
-1972 Subtropical Storm Delta (1 - 7 Nov.)
-1975, Subtropical Storm #2 (9 - 13 Dec.)
-1980, Hurricane Jeanne (7 - 16 Nov.) and Hurricane Karl (25 - 28 Nov.)
-1981, Hurricane (3 - 7 Nov.) and Subtropical Storm #3 (12 - 17 Nov.)
-1984, Hurricane Klaus (5 - 13 Nov.) and Hurricane Lili (12 - 24 Dec.)
-1985, Hurricane Kate (15 - 23 Nov.)
-1986, Hurricane (18 - 21 Nov.)
-1988, Tropical Storm Keith (17 - 26 Nov.)
-1989, Tropical Storm Karen (28 Nov. - 4 Dec.)
-1994, Hurricane Florence ( 2 - 8 Nov.) and Hurricane Gordon (8 - 21 Nov.)
-1996, Hurricane Marco (18 - 26 Nov.)
-1998, Hurricane Nicole (24 Nov. - 1 Dec.)
-1999, Hurricane Lenny (13 - 21 Nov.)
-2001, Hurricane Michelle (29 Oct. - 6 Nov.) , Hurricane Noel (5 - 6 Nov.) and Hurricane Olga (24 Nov. - 4 Dec.)
-2003, Tropical Storm Odette (4 - 7 Dec.) and Tropical Storm Peter (9 - 11 Dec.)
So, since 1950, 23 seasons have seen later storms. While of course the atmospheric conditions are never the same, this data does give an historical perspective. It is noticeable that this kind of weather event was common in the 1980's, with 7 seasons in that decade exeriencing late storms.
Perhaps another storm is not that unlikely...
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
So, since 1950, 23 seasons have seen later storms. While of course the atmospheric conditions are never the same, this data does give an historical perspective. It is noticeable that this kind of weather event was common in the 1980's, with 7 seasons in that decade exeriencing late storms.
Perhaps another storm is not that unlikely...
Yes, 'tis possible, but:
How many of them made landfall in the US.... No, more to the point, how many of them made it to landfall in areas already hit by the infamous four from this season? Even more to the point, How many hit where I am? 
Yes, statistics say we can have another storm, even another hurricane, but what do statistics say about if it is a 'fun' experience, or another 'terror' experience?
I hope your answer is that the odds are on the side of 'fun' or of academic interest only.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I was really just saying what has happened in past seasons to get an idea of how often a November storm occurs. Sorry if I offended you. I assure you that wasn't my intention.
Edited by James88 (Sat Nov 06 2004 10:46 AM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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James,
I'm sure you didn't offend...in fact, I'd venture to say Richard's post was a tad tongue-in-cheek. Point being that late season hurricanes rarely make US landfall.
After THIS season, even the most ardent hurricane "fans" would probably be grateful for nothing more to track until 2005. And that includes me!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ricreig
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Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
James,
I'm sure you didn't offend...in fact, I'd venture to say Richard's post was a tad tongue-in-cheek. Point being that late season hurricanes rarely make US landfall.
After THIS season, even the most ardent hurricane "fans" would probably be grateful for nothing more to track until 2005. And that includes me!
Yup, that about sums it up....I can't remember a full-fledged hurricane landing in the US this late....probably has, but nothing comes to mind, certainly not recent history. I wouldn't mind an 'academic exercise', but I suspect few would like to actually have to deal with a storm again this year.
James, you'd have to work much harder than this to offend this old Curmudgeon. I *did* put a smiley in my reply to you, but it's easy to miss I'm sure. You had interesting stats and it *would* be interesting to see if any of those late season storms actually made a US landfall. ... and what the odds would be of it happening *this* year.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Well, glad that I didn't offend anyone and slightly embarrased that I misunderstood what you said.  Sorry about that. I agree with you both about this season - hopefully it ended around 4 weeks ago with Nicole.
Oh, and just for the record - only 3 seasons of the 23 I mentioned have seen a US landfall this late. They are 1985 - Hurricane Kate, 1988 - Tropical Storm Keith, and 1994 - Tropical Storm Gordon. Happily, it looks as though the odds are stacked against it happening this year - at least from an historical perspective. Let's hope our friends in the Caribbean also have some peace for the next few months.
Edited by James88 (Sun Nov 07 2004 04:44 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
1100 AM EST SUN 07 NOV 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z NOV 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-162
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
15.5N AND 75.0W FOR 09/2000Z.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Panhandler
Unregistered
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Kate---1985... Florida Panhanlde; borderline 1/2 was Cat 3 in Gulf; Keith 1988, 70 mph TS in Florida at Sarasota; Gordon, 1993, TS in Fl and hurricane of NC Outer Banks. Others too.
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Ricreig
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Loc: Orlando, Fl
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Quote:
Kate---1985... Florida Panhanlde; borderline 1/2 was Cat 3 in Gulf; Keith 1988, 70 mph TS in Florida at Sarasota; Gordon, 1993, TS in Fl and hurricane of NC Outer Banks. Others too.
...so, you seem to agree, while possible, it is relatively rare and with the current wx setup, it isn't likely thys year either? It seems that most of they years where there were late storms, there also were few storms, eleven or so for the year. In years when we get 15 or more, few have been late season storms it would seem. Could that be a pattern? A-G, late possible, A-O or more, few late storms?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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with so strongly negative recently and the pattern amplified in the east things are primed for something to try to develop. it may or may not be tropical, but some sort of system should originate either in the sw/central caribbean or in the southwestern atlantic near the islands. may just be a sheared hybrid, but possibly a legit subtropical or tropical cyclone.
it's going into the second week of november and we still haven't had a hard freeze down here.. getting a little late. decent shot coming down in the next 48hrs should finally give us that killing frost.
offtopic: pray for our troops in fallujah. a lot of people are going to die there this week.
HF 0416z08november
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bobbi
Unregistered
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Carib is looking interesting. Showers south of Haiti and a dangling front all combined with previousl comments would make me think its now or never for one more storm this season.
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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It is not now are never especially for some this season. Last year we had a storm in December, this year we could have the same. This storm system that we have now, looks like a very probable canditate for becoming a sub-tropical storm. Watch it carefully,with the cold highs and the storm trofs we could see another landfalling system. Got to go, in Cali' and don't want to waste my battery. LI Phil, couldn't get a picture of it...
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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Rain rain go away... Still too weak via Classification. Temps in Clearwater have really dropped the last week. Hopefully that will ensure nothing funny happens in the gulf for the remainder of the year.
Mark (go Falcons... 6 - 2)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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NHC still plans on sending in a plane tomorrow...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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holy crap today is cloudy i love it! finally some cooler weather and this rain adds onto the cold front.
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Heather
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 91
Loc: Sebring, FL
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The weather was nice today in Central Florida. Dreary with clouds and a bit of rain. All that and it wasn't even "breezy" like August and September! People think I'm strange for my weather preferences. I just get tired of sunshine, blue skies and palm trees all the time.
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When it rains, it pours...
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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I was watching CSI:Miami last night and they had a 30 foot tsunami (if you didn't see the ep, it was one of the most unbelievable of all time) Anyway, they had lots of flyover damage pics and even I can tell there wasn't nearly the damage that a 30 foot wall of water would cause hitting Miami Beach... or anywhere else.
Question is... the damage shots taken from the air - did they use post footage? Charlie, Jeanne or footage? Or did they CGI Miami? It actually looked at times more like minor damage - windows blown out, roof pieces missing than what I've seen of the worst of pics..
I've been to both places but not enough to actually recognize less obvious places.
Thank you and sorry about the long question!
'shana
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Keith234
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
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Guten abend,
With that strong anticyclonic flow, a easterly fetch will develop. With the presence of a realitvely large area of concentrated moisture, and this fetch, it will cause some rainy and cloudy weather for a extended period of time in Florida. Texas will have some horrible weather also, with snow in the panhandle, and very cold and windy. This will be caused when that 'chewball' type of storm taps into cold air from Canada. The month of November looks like a cold one for the whole United States; especially the northeast, with temperatures averaging 5-7 degrees below normal. If the mean ridge retrogrades farther enough into central Canada this winter will be a bitter cold winter in the east. I think it is safe to say the landfalling season of any storm of a tropical nature is done, though there is a slight chance for something developing in the Caribbean.
Auf wiedersehen
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"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe
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