Bloodstar
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Ok, so just what scenario is setting up in the south pacific?
-Mark
I know it's offseason, but this one should be in the 'other basins' forum. if anybody wants to elaborate on the stuff mark just mentioned, make it in another forum. thanks. -HF
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Feb 16 2005 07:38 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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According to news reports (see the Drudgereport) typhoon Olaf could grow into a super storm near America Somoa today and then absorb typhoon Nancy ( a mere shell of a storm by comparison) and then a "perfect storm" could be created...this should be worth observing and perhaps we could get some visible evidence of this as it occurs.
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doug
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Bloodstar
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Quote:
I know it's offseason, but this one should be in the 'other basins' forum. if anybody wants to elaborate on the stuff mark just mentioned, make it in another forum. thanks. -HF
oops... sorry bout that. Didn't even dawn upon me that the forums were subdivided... Learn new things every day *smiles*
-Mark (Thrashers end the Season at 500!)
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danielw
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Update on OLAF.
WARNING POSITION:
17/0000Z8 --- NEAR 15.4S0 168.2W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT (161 MPH), GUSTS 170 KT (195.5 mph)
...REMARKS:
170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 167.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (OLAF), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127, 140 AND 155 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TC 19P REMAINS RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 46 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//
JTWC link.
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Feb 16 2005 11:13 PM)
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LI Phil
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SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- The residents of the Cook Islands in the South Pacific are bracing for their third major storm in two weeks as "super cyclone" Olaf heads southeast towards the sparsely populated nation.
The Category-5 storm -- the most powerful in weather forecasting terms -- has skirted major population centers in Samoa and American Samoa but has made a direct hit on the latter's Manu'a Islands.
The Australian-Pacific Center for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) reports that the eye of Olaf passed over the three Manu'a Islands bringing heavy rains and flooding but no reports of casualties.
"The 1,300 residents of the 3 Manu'a Islands, Ta'u, Ofu and Olosega, have weathered the storm in shelters on each island," the APCEDI's Web site reports.
However, a New Zealand Air Force plane has been dispatched to the area north of Samoa to search for three fishing vessels with 18 people aboard believed to have been caught in the storm, according to wire reports.
One of the boats is known to have sunk about 150 kilometers (90 miles) north of Samoa and there are fears for the safety of the crew.
Cyclone Olaf is packing sustained winds of 255 km/h (155 mph) with gusts of over 300 km/h (185 mph) and causing 10 meter (30 foot) waves in coastal areas.
A state of emergency was earlier declared in Samoa and American Samoa and schools, businesses and airports closed.
The storm is now heading directly for the southern Cook Islands, following hard on the heels of cyclones Meena and Nancy.
The tiny nation of Niue has also been placed on alert as it may also receive a glancing blow from the storm, the APCEDI reports.
"This continues to be a critically dangerous situation for the Manu'a group in American Samoa for the next four to six hours until Olaf pulls away," the center says.
"The Cook Islands and Niue must now be very vigilant and monitor this storm very closely."
The 15 islands of the Cook group have a total land area of 230 sq km (90 sq miles). From north to south, the islands are spread over 1,400 km (900 miles).
The island's total area of jurisdiction covers 2,200,000 square km (850,000 sq miles) of ocean.
The Cooks economy is heavily reliant on tourism revenue generated from its pristine atolls and blue-water lagoons.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Clark
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No "Perfect Storm" scenario likely here....this is more of a case like Iris and Karen from 1995, where the weaker storm ultimately hit cooler waters and was sheared apart by the larger, stronger system. The remnant circulation may become obsorbed, but it's not likely to do anything like the so-called "Perfect Storm" did 14 years ago.
Interesting to note is that such TC pairs -- or triplets, if you include Meena from a couple of weeks ago -- can help excite an equatorial Kelvin wave propogating across the Pacific Ocean. They don't think that'll happen here, but it is certainly a possibility. These Kelvin waves are one of the primary triggers for El Nino events...so, in over-simplified terms, strong activity half a globe away can, 6mo-1yr down the line, help to limit our tropical cyclone activity.
It'll be interesting to see if this actually happens, but I'll defer to the experts and not call for it right now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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James88
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Wow, that is interesting. Certainly something to watch for down the line.
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HanKFranK
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clark got to it first, but i honestly get irritated by the newsies trying to cook up a story so they can sell it. they just pick a convenient, incorrect reference and name drop their way to a better story. only problem, they look really stupid to anybody who actually does their homework on weather.
sort of like how you can automatically tell what a 'global warming' story is going to read like.. they never question the sensational, just quote the noisiest person they can find and publish it.
HF 2215z18february
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James88
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That's very true. The media love something unprecedented and earth-shattering to latch onto.
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Clark
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HF brings up a good point.
I made the mistake of trying to debate weather & global warming on a football board. Someone had posted a link to an article discussing how Chris Landsea resigned his post in Fall 2004 on the UN Global Climate Change board after Kevin Trenberth, chair of the board, made a statement saying that climate change was responsible for what happened in the 2004 hurricane season and that future years may be just like '04. Landsea said such a remark was ridiculous and off-base, highlighting how politics have become entrenched into the whole debate. The article posted was someone highlighting this as well; then, someone came back with something about global warming that was unrelated, but tried to turn the whole thing into a liberal vs. conservative debate. Needless to say, I shouldn'tve even tried to get in the midst of that.
Essentially, Landsea is right. Sure, global warming is occuring, and steps need to be taken to curtail emissions and the like. But to blame everything on the phenomenon because it's the "cool" and PC thing to do? That's just crazy. Global warming causes El Nino events to be more frequent, for overall moisture amounts to decrease, and for sea surface temperatures to rise in general.
The first results in decreased activity in the Atlantic; we've seen that in 1997 and 1992, among other years. The second isn't favorable to hurricane development (there needs to be low and mid-level moisture); an analysis of water vapor imagery and surface observations confirms that. The third, surprisingly enough, is an inhibiting factor if the temperatures get warm enough, or to about ~31 C. Disorganized convection tends to become spontaneous then, resulting in a canopy of clouds cooling the SSTs and spreading heating over a wide area, resulting in storms being less likely).
Plus, hurricane track isn't dependent upon global temperatures, anyway. It's steered by ridges and troughs that, given generally uniform global temperature increases, are not going to be affected that much. The only potentially "positive" factor to increased development from the global warming argument is the atmosphere's response to heating: increased thicknesses tend to lower surface pressure and raise heights in upper levels, an environment generally favorable for hurricane development. But, the overall effect of this is likely to be minimal, given the relatively slow increases as well as the negating factors previously mentioned.
The key thing to realize is that years like 2004 have happened in the past, long before global warming was a buzz topic, and will happen again. 1933 saw 21 tropical storms, with 5 major hurricanes -- all of which affected land. There could well have been even more storms that year; the database reflects no Cape Verde/early recurving storms. 1992 and 1997 were inactive years, yet in the midst of the debate. The point to all of this is that the comment was made because it sounded convienient and is the likely thing people want to hear.
Trenberth is a respected researcher at the NCAR/UCAR in Colorado on climates and climate variability, but has done little (if any) research into hurricanes. Landsea is one of the foremost experts in the field, working on the Hurricane Reanalysis Project, acting as second author on Bill Gray's forecasts, as well as being a lead researcher at the Hurr. Research Division of NOAA. When it comes to tropical cyclone activity, I'm going to go with the person who is in the field and knows what he is talking about, whether or not it's the "popular" thing to do.
Needless to say, Olaf is well on its way to doing what thousands of other storms before it have done -- becoming and heading off into the neverlands of the South Pacific Ocean. No Perfect Storm-like evolution here.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
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Between Clark and HF I could get all my info here. Better than CNN!
I have sent Dr Landsea a few emails over the last 3 seasons, and he has Always taken the time to answer them in a scientific manner that I could easily understand. I also have seen many sets of Hurricane Research Division flight data that had Dr Landsea's credentials on it as flight crewmember. He flew at least one 'pre-storm enviroment' flight on , over the Mid GOM, last year. I'm sure he flew many hours last season.
I'll second Clark's motion to stick with the man in the field/ plane. Who happens to live in FL, not CO.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea_bio.html
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