Arlene intensifies in the Gulf

Tropical Storm , as of 11am, is situated 440 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, with winds now to 60mph. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have now gone up for the northern Gulf coast in preparation for what is to come over the next two-three days: the potential for a weak hurricane making landfall.

Early morning satellite imagery shows a storm trying to get its act together, with the center gradually consolidating along the western edge of the cloud shield between it and the Florida peninsula. The increase in winds so far is largely a result of it entering a region of overall higher pressure: the difference between that and the low pressure of the storm, largely unchanged at around 1000mb, results in a stronger wind. Further intensification is likely, but only as the storm itself becomes better organized -- still a question of "if" at this stage. Of course, waters are pretty warm in the Gulf, shear is on the decline, and the dry air to the west of the system is slowly moistening, all favorable for at least maintenance of intensity to landfall.

As forecast, the ridge has built in, allowing to gradually accelerate towards the north. Models are in good agreement on a landfall between New Orleans and Pensacola, but the precise location and intensity remains to be seen. Those in the middle of that swath will likely see the strongest effects from the center, but those well to the east will see the strongest effects of the storm in the form of gusty winds and heavy rainfall. It may not be a massive flooding event in Florida, as potentially feared, but amounts to 5" (locally higher in spots) in the peninsula and 5-10" along the nortrhern Gulf coast east of the landfall point of the storm. Despite the potential for strengthening to weak hurricane intensity, rainfall will be the biggest impact of the storm. If nothing else, should serve as a reminder to the general public: do not focus on the exact center of the landfall cone, nor on the exact landfall point!

Stay tuned to the , your local media, and here for updates throughout the day & weekend...

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