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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
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News Talkback >> 2005 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Western to Northwestern Caribbean
      #37752 - Fri Jul 01 2005 11:36 PM

A tropical wave southeast of Grand Cayman is beginning to show signs of increased convective activity and has a fair chance for additional development over the weekend. This is the same system that was located in the west central Atlantic on Monday. The wave is moving to the west or west northwest at about 10 to 12 knots and will move into an area of light shear in about 24 hours. The area of light shear is extensive and will likely remain light for many days. It would not surprise me to see an invest on this area within 24 hours. Something to keep an eye on over the holiday weekend.
Cheers,
ED

02/16Z Update
System now has a developing weak circulation with banding formation near 19N 83.5W. Regarding the 'bar code' (see below) - that usually reflects Mike's thoughts for development potential. As time goes on, that potential can increase or decrease - just like a forecast can change to reflect a better analysis.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 02 2005 12:58 PM)

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Lysis-in-Texas
Unregistered




Re: Area of Interest - Western to Northwestern Caribbean [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #37760 - Sat Jul 02 2005 09:57 AM

Perhaps the main pages likelihood bar should be updated to reflect our newfound interests in the system. Or is a 2 still appropriate at this point?

EDIT: Awesome idea with the bar though (kudos to whoever thought of that)... I am not sure if you guys were doing that last season.

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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Area of Interest - Western to Northwestern Caribbean [Re: Lysis-in-Texas]
      #37761 - Sat Jul 02 2005 11:29 AM

john and mike have been putting those up for as long as i've been here.. 5 years. it has been a while.
HF 1623z02july

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