erikakane2010
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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Teal, this looks like a precip map. Is this just one model shifting to West??? I also agree that they should have ordered evac from Miss Coast sooner....it's alot of people to move on limited highways
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erikakane2010
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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See you tomorrow Rick...take care pls
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Can anyone help me understand where the 85.2W came from? Am I missing something???
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
Probably a less than good decision:
skeeto......check data.
Hurricane force winds associated with may occur as
far as 150 to 175 miles inland along the track of the hurricane.
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 275
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Everyone keeps talking about Camille, but the track is almost identical to Frederic in 1979 that destroyed Mobile. If Dauphin Island gets a direct hit, I don't know if any builing will remain standing.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
Quote:
NHC map now shows Alabama landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT04/refresh/AL0405W+gif/024557W_sm.gif
I am so upset about this. The models showed this at 8am this morning, I saw it myself, and the forecast track wasn't changed until now, and MS Gulf Coast did not evacuate as many people in time as could have been convinced to evacuate. When I talked to my brother, who works for the sheriff's dept, this afternoon he said nothing about a mandatory evac order so it sounds like this was not put in place until after the 11pm advisory that changed the landfall to MOB. All the emphasis was first on FL and then today on AL. Thank goodness the eye is predicted to land to the east, even if it is too close for comfort; in a CAT 3 storm surge, about 80% of Jackson Co is under water (storm surge maps, evac maps, and evac routes are all online on the state of MS web site). If the eye lands to the west it would be a horrible horrible situation for everyone in Jackson Co.
the track has been FL/AL border all day. Alabama is just dense if they choose not to evac. people don't listen. focus on the cone, not the line.
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Shan
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I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.
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Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL
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erikakane2010
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
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Nite all!!! Get some rest for tomorrow....looks like a breeze will be a-blowin somewhere....luck to all in its path!!!!
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Rick on boat in Mobile
Weather Drama Guru
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didn't destroy mobile...just screwed it up real bad...trees down..power out....roofs torn off...sometimes the plywood...a home wiped out here...and right next to it nothing...(had to be a down burst.)....and it was a dry hurricane too....
a cat 4 or 5 would be painful....real painful...
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kissy
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 20
Loc: Pascagoula, MS
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Tell me about it! Since I'm in Jackson CO and didn't get the evac order until to late. There are still alot of people left in town. Have to say that this morning I was a bit ticked that we still had no solid evacuations even though mobile CO. (right next door) had been fully evaced!
Not that I would wish this monster on anyone but I hope it doesn;t hit us!
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Nothing like fishing in the middle of a hurricane! Katrina '06!
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G. J.
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 30
Loc: Tampa, FL
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the track has been FL/AL border all day. Alabama is just dense if they choose not to evac. people don't listen. focus on the cone, not the line.
This is a perfect example 
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recmod
Weather Guru
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Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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That 12 midnight position update is a mistake..they reposted the 10pm coordinates
--Lou
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I'm just north of D.I. in Bayou La Batre. I don't know if much of the island will be left if it sustains a direct hit.
Shan, based on the newest Advisory I would get out now. Before traffic gets too bad.
You are in a very low place. Surge would be terrible if the eye were to come in west of Bayou La Batre'
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pcola
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
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This track could change Pensacola Beach forever...Santa Rosa Island could become 4 islands if there is another storm surge like , and since the beach faces sse, this looks bad.
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Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!
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Doombot!
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
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 New topic
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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Quote:
Tell me about it! Since I'm in Jackson CO and didn't get the evac order until to late. There are still alot of people left in town. Have to say that this morning I was a bit ticked that we still had no solid evacuations even though mobile CO. (right next door) had been fully evaced!
Not that I would wish this monster on anyone but I hope it doesn;t hit us!
Kissy! Are you going to try to leave now? What's going on there - is everyone asleep or are things happening now like letting people know local evacuation shelters like schools? Do you think people will try to get up 63 to Hattiesburg now? If the storm tracks further west that'll flood real early, only leaving I-10 to go east or west.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist
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Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
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Quote:
That 12 midnight position update is a mistake..they reposted the 10pm coordinates
--Lou
Thanks Lou, I was beginning to wonder what was going on.
I have around 26.9N and 85.6W.
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I survived Hurricane Katrina, but nothing I owned did!
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New Thread is up. Please post there.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Teal, I'm watching this like a hawk.... I posted several days ago I felt this could be the second coming of Fredrick, but only stronger.... looks that might be coming to fruition....
Jav, come on by, I'll be up all night and make my decision as to if we'll leave early in the am... got several options on where we can go... still got time... Just want this thing to keep east of me.. ... Fredrick was not all that bad for Biloxi and I think the eye went near the MS/AL line... this could very well happen again... I hope it doesn't get any closer than Pascagoula....
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Larry Lawver
Registered User
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Posts: 3
Loc: Oviedo (Seminole Cty) FL
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A data point for everyone north, south, east, and west of Oviedo FL in Seminole County: It's eerie quiet here...
We're located just north of the high school for those familiar with the area. We're near the top of the "L" in "Orlando" for those watching the National Weather Service Radar Image from Tampa Bay.
We had one storm band before dusk that barely rated as a normal daily rain. No lightning, no real wind. At this moment, it's cool, damp, and silent outside. It's been overcast all day, but the northwestward skittering low clouds are now gone as well.
We've had no significant weather events here during this regional crisis. Meanwhile, tropical storm events have been reported within twenty miles of here. It reminds me of the aftermath of , when I was dealing with devastation at my house, and my boss who lived five miles away had no damage at all and wondered why I hadn't worked the weekend!
This all meets the higher end of my expectations, because we have not yet repaired all of the damage from . We still have blue tarps over the garage and the southeast side of the house, and probably won't be finished for several more months. Our house is fragile, but it survived Francis and Jeanne without additional damage. Unfortunately, the blue tarps are aging...
There are some bands approaching from the south, and I just hope they continue to spare us.
Thanks to everyone on this board for the spirited discussions that have kept Leslee and me sane during , Francis, Jeanne, and . For us, FLHurricane.com is one of the most useful places on the Internet. Unlike most Internet blogs, this one has maintained an extraordinary signal to noise ratio!
Regards,
Larry
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