Dennis' Northward Turn: Trend or Wobble?

The recent rapid strengthening has been about the same time as the recent northerly jog of the storm. But, could it be more than just a jog?

This link offers up the UWisconsin mean steering-layer wind diagrams. For a deeper storm, the storm "feels" winds at different levels of the atmosphere, as research has shown over the past 20-30 years.

Take a look at the steering layer for a ~960mb low, the 300-850mb layer: this suggests a northwest movement, like that which had been moving along until recently. Then, take a look at the steering layer for a <940mb low, the 200-700mb layer: this suggests a slightly west of due north movement. This suggests that the upper-level flow is beginning to have a greater impact -- albeit slightly -- on the motion of the storm as a result of the storm's rapid intensification.

At this point, any sustained jog in one direction or another is going to result in a shift of the ultimate landfall point by 5+ miles. This sustained northward jog over the past few hours shows signs of not changing substantially, hinting that areas near and just west of Panama City need to really be following this one right now.

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