going out on a limb.....think a new center at the surface has formed in the new convection to the south....i think i see pretty good signs of reformation....if this trend holds then there is a good chance of TS status today.....shear will be lighter and less dry air near the storm......oh yeah, warmer waters too
plus a shift of initial track.....
The center is between the two burst of convection and Irene looks like a tropical storm now on satellite, with convection wrapping very near the center. If you streamline the pattern, you'll clearly note the center between the two bursts. I do note the due west movement, and I suspect you'll see a shift in the forecast track though NHC as long as I can remember never radically jumps from it's current track in one advisory.
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