Myles
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 80
Loc: SW FL
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It apears to me that there are two circulation centers in Irene now. The visable sat shows what certainly looks like a circulation going north and one continuing northwest. Maybe the low level and mid level circulations seperating? I cant see this on any IR sat or WV, but to me the visable shows it quite clear right now. Could this maybe just be a cloud feature?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
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Not that you are wrong but for right now the thinking is that it will head northwest generally and then at about 4 days time, the ridge is forecast to build again and force it more west northwesterly. Just take a look here:
wunderground.com/tropical
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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A more westerly curve towards the end of the forecast period is definitely an option on the table. And there is some model support for tihs as well.
But, given the pattern that has rejected every storm even near the EC this year, I'll wait a while before I put my eggs in the westward turn basket.
EDIT: Another interesting thing I just noticed...the NAO is forecasted to go positive for the second half of this month.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
A positive NAO would potentially favor a stronger ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic...possibly allowing CV storms (and storms anywhere, for that matter) a greater chance at U.S. landfall.
Edited by Kevin (Sat Aug 13 2005 05:54 PM)
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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Why is the going against most the models on their five day track?
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/210109.shtml?5day
Not too crazy about the 's track..LOL!
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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The 5-day track is largely with the model guidance...the model guidance, that is, that actually captures the storm. The BAM-series models and the LBAR (and other models) are simplistic, older models and not given much weight in making a forecast.
It's also worth noting that the 5-day track errors generally are lower than all of the model guidance except for the consensus (multi-model average) models and the Superensemble. I'd put more trust in the over the long haul than I would almost any model.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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meto
Weather Guru
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Posts: 140
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because a strong ridge will develop and turn jose west. look at discussion at 5 on TD 10. strong systems coming off africa. and some behind still over africa.
Correct Quote~danielw
...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/132019.shtml?
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 13 2005 06:52 PM)
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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I know this might not be on topic but could a moderator start a new talkback so for TD 10 not to be intrusive or anything though.
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SkeetoBite
Master of Maps
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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Current models and track for Irene. These will update automatically (may be a slight delay).
 
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
I know this might not be on topic but could a moderator start a new talkback so for TD 10 not to be intrusive or anything though.
This thread is for both storms.
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NONAME
Weather Guru
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Storm Cooper
User
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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There is a new Thread now....
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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