MCC developing near 24.8N 67.7W at 04/00Z and currently stationary. This location is quite a bit east of an area of potential tropical cyclone development as noted by the UK Met model for Monday morning. It is also too far east of the trough currently across central Florida to be considered as a baroclinically induced system. The complex may have formed under a weak and rather small upper level low. A high pressure ridge exists well to the northwest and a weak induced ridge, aided by the western circulation from the remnants of TD Lee well to the north, exists just to the north of the convective complex. It may all evaporate in a few hours, but for the moment its something to keep an eye on.
ED
Dr William Gray has updated his predictions, but leaves the numbers unchanged. See This link for the report.
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