Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Most of that slightly moister air is just that which has been moved into the region by the upper-level flow from old thunderstorm complexes to the west and from the daytime hours. You'll likely see the ridge "look drier" tomorrow morning; trust me, this ridge is pretty strong and not weakening in the least. As moves a little further to the west, you'll see it start to accelerate some under the influence of the ridge. The thing that you see to "break" the ridge is a trough exiting the east coast of the US, largely the same one that got Ophelia yesterday. However, this trough will likely begin to lift out through time; it'll leave enough of a weakness to keep Philippe from turning back to the west during the forecast period, but should have little impact on 's track.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I hope there are no surprises, but I think there might be. All the local forecasters are saying that we will get a little wind and rain and that's all. No one is paying any attention to this storm around here. If it keeps relocating further and further north we might wake up to a hurricane watch or warning with one day or less to prepare. Does look to be firing up tonight. Remember yesterday's discussion mentioned it could get to CAT. 2 before approaching Florida. I'll be staying up for the 11 p.m. and will be up again before the 5 a.m.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I hope there are no surprises, but I think there might be. All the local forecasters are saying that we will get a little wind and rain and that's all. No one is paying any attention to this storm around here. If it keeps relocating further and further north we might wake up to a hurricane watch or warning with one day or less to prepare. Does look to be firing up tonight. Remember yesterday's discussion mentioned it could get to CAT. 2 before approaching Florida. I'll be staying up for the 11 p.m. and will be up again before the 5 a.m.
It briefly fired up but it looks to be subsiding a bit after the fire up, now anyway. I hope, if it comes that way, that people take heed. A northward jog toward the mainland would help the gulf coast because it would increase the likelihood of the storm weakening - but then went over quasi-land and look what IT did in the Gulf.
ETA:
at 11 PM EDT...0300z... the Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Warning is now in
effect for all of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Ocean Reef
southward and westward to Dry Tortugas.
At 11 PM EDT... the tropical storm watch for the extreme
southeastern Florida Peninsula has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. A Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Deerfield Beach southward to
Florida City and continuing westward to East Cape Sable.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Villa
Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del
Rio...and a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Ciego de
Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas. A
Hurricane Warning is recommended for the northwest Bahamas...
excluding Grand Bahama and Abaco Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas.
At 11 PM EDT... a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
extreme southwestern Florida Peninsula from west of East Cape Sable
westward to Chokoloskee.
ETA2: Philippe is now officially a 75mph hurricane... no threat to land, thankfully.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Sep 18 2005 10:51 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Hugh, thanks for the post. Due to the close proximity to FL and the Keys.
I'm going to repeat part of that bulletin in bold letters.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005
..RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
..NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.
AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.
AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.
Edited by danielw (Sun Sep 18 2005 11:12 PM)
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BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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I think that once the local mets read Stewart's 11:00PM discussion on that they might not be so low key.
THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
This is one that could surprise us all.
Bill
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Some of the 00Z intensity models are out - not liking the long term picture - of course it's the fickle GFDI that's the worrisome one:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
--
Since this is the first post of page 12, make sure you go back and check DanielW's post on page 11 if you're in Florida and didn't see it yet.
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tpratch
Moderator
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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
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Or for those of us who have custom settings and are in Florida, we could alternately view both posts on page 4 
I'm getting a bad feeling about the apparent weakness in the ridge. Let's just say that I'm happy to have over 10 gallons of water in my garage
/not a met
//not wishcasting
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gogogabby007
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Gulf Breeze, FL
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By looking at the tracking for , is it safe to assume that will not affect the Panhandle of FL? Or, should I just run with the general assumption of assuming anything?
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Based on Forecaster Stewart's Discussion of .
The last paragraph is using heavy wording...this far in advance.
I would venture to sat at this point. If you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast and the Eastern FL coast as far North as Melbourne. Please pay special attention to all the NWS and products. They Are the Official Watches and Warnings. Also watch for Hurricane Local Statements from your Local NWS office. They detail preparation and evacuation instructions.
Current HLS from NWS Miami and NWS KeyWest are less than 45 minutes old.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls3.shtml
Another interesting, and possibly significant note is found at Dr Vigh's website.
The 18Z early BAMS, BAMM and BAMD models, from the noon run today, placed as far north as 27N at 90.0W.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091818.png
The 00Z early BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD models tonight now indicate could be as far north as New Orleans. That's 30.0N/ 90.0W
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/store/early_AAL18_05091900.png
Note; these models are currently the northern most outliers. And they didn't perform well with at the 120 hour/ 5 day forecast.
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