Clark
Meteorologist
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As of 10pm, soon-to-be-Hurricane was located near 23N/77.5W or just southeast of Andros Island in the Bahamas. The storm is taking advantage of the upcoming diurnal convective maximum and very warm waters underneath it between the Bahamas, Florida, and Cuba and appears to be rapidly organizing. Outflow is excellent in all quadrants except to the southeast, where it is being impacted just slightly by mountainous terrain over eastern Cuba. Other than a slight jog to the south earlier as denoted by recon, the storm has wobbled back toward the north and appears to be on the forecast track in the short term.
As a result, the storm will likely pass between the upper Keys and the north coast of Cuba during the evening hours tomorrow, potentially making landfall over Key West as it does so. The waters between the storm's current location and the end of the Keys are some of the warmest and deepest in the basin -- and largely untouched by . As a result, save for any potential interaction of the inflow into the storm from the south over Cuba, the storm should continue to organize at a fairly good clip and I expect it to be of category 2 intensity -- near 100mph -- as it nears Key West tomorrow night. Impacts along the Keys will be substantial in terms of rainfall (>10" likely in spots), storm surge of ~12', and winds, particularly to the north of the storm. Impacts in southern peninsular Florida will be lesser but tropical storm conditions may be felt tomorrow afternoon and evening as the storm passes by to the south. An isolated tornado is possible in an outer rainband with 5" of rain likely in spots.
After emerging from the Florida Straits early on Wednesday, the question becomes one of how strong the storm will get and where it will go from there. It will be passing over waters churned up by three weeks ago; the ultimate question is how much of the storm's imprint is still present. The surface waters have largely recovered -- while they are no longer near 90F, they are in the upper 80s. The sub-surface waters, however, have not had the chance to recover yet, with heat content substantially down from earlier this season (before ) and sea surface height anomalies (a measure of heating in the upper ocean) near zero (source for all of this: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/.) This suggests that the storm will not be able to intensify to near the intensity of in the central Gulf, though the conditions are projected to be favorable aloft (weak shear and a powerful upper-level anticyclone just north of the storm) and at the surface to support a major hurricane. There are some rumblings of a category 4 storm, which is certainly reasonable. At this time, however, I will estimate between 125-135mph at its peak in the central Gulf, maintaining itself to landfall given continued favorable upper-level winds and warmer surface waters in the western Gulf, with the caveat that this might be slightly conservative.
Given that the storm will enter the western Gulf, it becomes merely a question of where it makes landfall. The current track is centered just west of Houston, potentially a devestating scenario for Houston and Galveston unlike one seen in many years. The models that predict a sharp turn to the right toward the LA/TX border also amplify the pattern to quite a large degree in the next few days, which given the current evolution of the pattern in the central/eastern Pacific appears possible but not likely. Tropical Storm Max has strengthened a bit more in the East Pacific than was anticipated and may be aiding in amplifying the western extent of the ridge, perhaps slowing any future erosion/movement of the ridge toward the east, a minor impact but one that must be accounted for.
Experimental products from the based off of the model from earlier today suggest that the greatest impacts on storm track will come from the environment surrounding the storm as opposed to the remaining environment, suggesting the model has a pretty good handle on the future track of the storm. It also is one of the furthest west of the models (along with the run off of the analysis). Other models are between the into the TX/LA border area and the into the area near S. Padre Island, with the consensus being near the official track. Based upon how the pattern appears to be evolving and the available model guidance, my landfall region is centered on Victoria, TX, with the projected landfall window between Beaumont, TX and Corpus Christi, TX and includes the Houston/Galvestion area.
It should be emphasized that I do not foresee the storm directly impacting New Orleans or Baton Rouge. Wave action on the northern periphery of the storm, as per the NOAA WaveWatch III model, may reach 5-6m along the northern Louisiana coast and potentially flood the hardest hit of the New Orleans area once again for a short period of time. As a result, residents of that area should heed the warnings from officials and remain out of the region for the time being. The levee system remains substantially weakened as a result of and it is unclear as to the ultimate impacts of with regards to surge in the region. Further west, residents of the entire NW Gulf coast should watch over the next couple of days as it enters the Gulf for a potential impact late Friday/early Saturday (or about 4 days from now).
I'll be brief in my comments on Philippe given the presence of a much more substantial threat in . Philippe is currently a sheared storm, being impacted by the outflow from to the east that is feeding into a developing upper-low to the north of the storm, with the center of circulation on the eastern edge of the convection. It is in a region of favorable sea-surface temperatures and upper oceanic heat content, but that doesn't equate to much strengthening given the current shear pattern. The storm has been drifting to the north-northwest since its inception and should continue to do so with a gradual acceleration in the short term. The path looks reasonable for this one, though I would keep it a bit further east throughout the period. As the upper-low to its north shifts west and the storm begins to accelerate, the storm-relative shear should decrease and offer a small window for some strengthening, but the earlier projections for a major hurricane aren't looking too good now. Except a near-steady state storm for the next couple of days with some modest intensification -- low end 1/high end 2 -- as the best bet for this one. And, thankfully, it's one for the fish.
Hurricane Jova in the Central Pacific is looking rather impressive for a storm so far to the north and west, though waters in that area are pretty warm all the way to Hawaii. The upper-low to the north of the islands should keep Jova to the north and east of the state, however, but there should be some really good surf on northeast facing beaches over the next few days.
Further updates as time & events warrant.
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