New Article: CSU releases 2026 season numbers, slightly below average. https://flhurricane.com
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
566 (Milton),
US Major:
566 (Milton),
FL Any:
566 (Milton),
FL Major:
566 (Milton)
04GTP
Registered User
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Posts: 2
Loc: Saint Petersburg Beach, FL
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Has anyone taken a look at the 12Z 10/4/05 model run?
For the past two days, has been predicting what looks to be a Cat-1 or Cat-2 storm winding itself up from the NE Yucatan Peninsula and working it's way to (roughly) the mouth of Tampa Bay in 66 hours or so.
It doesn't have anything to do with 92L as far as I can tell, but it looks ominous, if the model verifies over the next couple of days.
Anyone have any thoughts as to why shows this genesis? Check out the 850MB vorticity loop at:
GFS MODEL LOOP
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Novice storm tracker / "Hurricane Junky". Have lived through: Jeanne, Charley, Elena, Ivan, too many T.S.'s to mention!
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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Living a bit south of you in Cape Coral, I've also been watching the models. Crazy how the has been spinning up lows in the area between the Yucatan and Cuba, and sending them at the west coast of Florida. The 18Z is up on the Penn State site and it looks a little better relative to intensity but it's still spinning up a few lows with the Florida west coast as the target.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
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Ben Wallace
Registered User
Reged:
Posts: 6
Loc: Zephyrhills, FL
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I have been also looking at this model. It has seemed be spinning lows up all over the place as I also noticed it spinning up a low right off Africa and turning it north through the Cape Verde Islands. Strange though how it spins up a low off the Yucatan and brings it straight twords the tampa area, I don't even see the feature that could possibly develop into this "storm" the is spinning up. It also looks like it does not develop the distubance in the Bahamas very much. I think this model has gone a litte wacky with developing lows.
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