danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=gravity-wave1
http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section7.html
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Genesis
Weather Guru
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Thing is, while the NE is going to get a Nor'Easter, it doesn't appear that it will be the monster hybrid/baroclinic thing that it could have been.
My concern a couple of days ago was the possibility that would get picked up earlier and the tilt on the trough would have been greater. In that case, a direct impact of the circulation moving northward along the trough somewhere from LI to Maine could have occurred. The kept insisting on this, and the setup looked good for it.
By late yesterday it became clear that the trough had outrun this possibility, and that set up the almost straight E-W trough axis that prevented a more northward track for over Florida.
The axis is riding up is well offshore, and odds are that she won't even hit the maritimes. This is a good thing, because had that axis been further westward this would have hit like a solid Cat 5 storm in terms of windfield on the east side, when you consider the winds themselves and then forward speed. That sort of hit in the NE was almost completely unexpected, and it would have come with very little warning.
Thank God it looks like its not going to happen. I remain SLIGHTLY concerned as the WV imagery still shows the northern outflow jet over land and a nearly-straight-north path to it. The 's latest run doesn't appear to pick up the surface feature that my most-recently-available surface map shows correctly, which is a bit troublesome..... the takes cleanly offshore, but that's predicated on structures that it progged for now (from when it was run) that aren't reflected in the "nowcast" surface map.
I would say that prudence is advised in the NE, as they're getting and will continue to get a hell of a rain and wind event anyway. If nothing else will contribute plenty of moisture to a VERY cold environment at the boundary, which adds up to a LOT of precip in an area that can't afford it right now.
This is one time I'm going to be pleased if I have two "busts" in terms of what looked, to me, to be developing, because they're both interrelated, and while the NE is getting soaked and is in for plenty more of it, if 130kt winds and a 30+kt forward speed had been added to that, with the east side of that circ coming onshore up there, it would have been catastrophic.
I've got reports from some friends with marine interests in the Miami area. They got hammered but are ok; the damage was heavy but not catastrophic.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Twin Cities
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I just took a quick look at the sat images before going to bed (at a reasonable hour for once), and, um, has anyone looked lately? With no imminent landfall, perhaps this is just academic, but is there any chance can make it up to Cat 4? Because the eyewall is looking very good, and she has been known to shrink her eyewall on occasion for dramatic effect.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Wilma still hanging in there, I see. It's bizarre to see a cat 3 hurricane with a forward speed of 47 mph. It still doesn't seem to be affected by that much shear, based on the outflow pattern. It might be even stronger if not for the cool air that it has likely been ingesting into the circulation. Water temps will get progressively cooler in its path, but I think that around 40N is when it hits the really cold water and the laws of physics will finally put an end to its days as a tropical cyclone.
The vort max formally known as Alpha still has a small ball of relatively deep convection in its vicinity (NE of ) and a skeletal feeder band, but between the circulation of and its own forward speed, it has almost no chance to maintain any sort of northerly wind on its west side to close off a surface circulation. There are probably some tropical storm force winds in its vicinity, though.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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I don't think cat 4 would be out of the question... with its forward speed still increasing, it would not take much improvement in the storm itself to bring max winds near cat 4 intensity. I don't know if they plan to have another plane into it or not, though, and that would probably be a tough call based on satellite presentation alone.
their calling it a 3 with FL winds peaking at 136kt is a little inconsistent with the storm being a 3 earlier with the normal reduction suggesting a 2. i guess they think it isn't mixing to the surface for whatever reason. not my area of expertise. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 25 2005 12:14 AM)
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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we'll end up seeing some bad weather in new england, but by itself it's probably going to be nothing they don't usually deal with in autumn storms. it's all context.. serious bad news on top of the heavy rain they've had this month. as far as that phasing hyper-bomb tip and i were concerned about.. well, like he's been saying all day, deep 500mb anomaly and negative NAO or not, the storm didn't phase.. it's just running ne along the periphery of the ridge. was just too tropical. some of the intensification it's done today has been partially baroclinic in nature, but in spite of that the storm has remained clearly warm core. the forecast transition looks right though.. when it goes it will go fast. alpha has zipped up ahead of it... and is a tropical storm if it still has a closed circulation in that little envelope it exists in, but has been operationally declassified, so no matter. the coastal storm should move slowly enough to drop decent rains across the northeast... stuff on the order of the rain events earlier this month. reasonable to assume that there will be widespread, moderate flooding across the region tomorrow and wednesday.
anyhow, final prog on my track will be that i got the governing teleconnection patterns wrong... to a degree. the strongly positive has favored zonal ridging in the tropics, and that is probably a large contributor to the non-phasing. as a result the track was more longitudinally jagged than i'd guessed.. was thinking a sweeping recurvature, rather than the jab at the yucatan and the ungraceful lurch northeast. really good news, though... had flipped the storm would probably be bashing the outer banks right now, headed for long island or some place that is much better off with things the way they are.
didn't expect a legit landfall on the yucatan a day or two earlier than it happened, and had the port charlotte-fort myers area pegged from 4-5 days earlier.. hurricane went 50-80 miles south of there at marco. chose not to move it since i'm hardheaded. had the beat on intensity, was the only plus. timing was a day or so off from earlier... function of the yucatan camping event on friday-saturday. overall about like i usually do... not as good as the , but not too bad either.
anyhow there's a general sentement floating around that the hurricane season is over now that has lifted out... that may be true but i'm a doubter. pattern and indications on the ensembles are that new trouble areas will emerge in the caribbean by the weekend. personally i don't see that the basin has acquired that look of oppressive shear... and the SSTs are still warmer than normal in much of the deep tropics. globals fuzzy on the caribbean stuff still (west carib feature comes and goes... mixed support for the east carib feature), so nothing definite.. but i've got a hunch we'll see beta before october is out.
november could easily feature a system too. there are even odds in any given year, and this is no given year.
HF 0411z25october
later comment: looked at some of the 00Z guidance. what i'm seeing is more consistent than earlier with low pressure forming north of panama later this week across the models.. i.e. , earlier euro runs seeing basically the same thing. the disturbance would be in a weak current zone between upper ridges to the east and west, with the large trough in the eastern u.s. to the north. modeling keeps the low fairly weak and stable east of nicaragua through this week. note that if a legit system forms there it will be in a good synoptic environment. not much convection there right now, so it isn't something that will exist in the next day or two. -HF
Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 25 2005 12:34 AM)
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
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Loc: North Carolina
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I was just watching the sats, wv & ir, a I noticed a slight rotation down in the caribbean. One of the , a hurricane specialist mentioned yesterday about watching this area. It appears to be moving west and wouldn't have to much time before running into land.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />
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superfly
Weather Watcher
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Loc: New Orleans
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Quote:
I don't think cat 4 would be out of the question... with its forward speed still increasing, it would not take much improvement in the storm itself to bring max winds near cat 4 intensity. I don't know if they plan to have another plane into it or not, though, and that would probably be a tough call based on satellite presentation alone.
their calling it a 3 with FL winds peaking at 136kt is a little inconsistent with the storm being a 3 earlier with the normal reduction suggesting a 2. i guess they think it isn't mixing to the surface for whatever reason. not my area of expertise. -HF
The last mission was flown at 850mb (80% reduction) while all the previous ones were done at 700mb (90%).
136kts FL = 125MPH surface with 80% red.
Edited by superfly (Tue Oct 25 2005 02:27 AM)
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DougBaker
Verified CFHC User
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Thanks. Now I have a much better understanding.
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garrison
Verified CFHC User
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Does anyone know if a hurricane has ever made landfall in Canada? ty
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