MapMaster
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Even has an eye...def a sts, possibly ts, I'd say...hope someone there at will pick up on this....
MM
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Looks like ZETA to me, moving nnw...or maybe it will be Alberto...
That's an interesting question...if a storm spans the change of year, does it get both names?
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MapMaster
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Nope...if it forms in 2005, ZETA....if in 2006 , Alberto...it'll be one name or the other.
I realy do wonder if the folks at are at work today...they probably are....it should have been classified already, IMHO...hope htis doesn't slip through the cracks....even if it does, I bet it will be post op classified.
MM 
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Random Chaos
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Special tropical statement just issued! Advisory will be issued in about an hour.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/301605.shtml?
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Well, I am so new at this I didn't want to appear like a wishcaster and post, you know, oh, Zeta, before the end of the year, but I think it was about three days ago, or so, I starting thinking it would be possible, and then they mentioned it the very next day on the TWD, as possible. You know every day I have been trying to read the TWD and learning to spot various weather features on the sat images, and this is not the first cutoff low since that one that formed right after Epsilon that fizzled out; I've been watching all Dec. But it seemed to me that this one had more of a chance because (and this could be absolutely wrong because I am only really starting to understand the big picture) the weather pattern in the US has shifted a bit in the last part of this month.
I am not seeing much shear on the visual, but doesn't convection tend to be more shallow with these systems.
Yesterday you could see the surface low on quickscat to the SW, but couldn't see that on visible or IR (I can't bring up quickscat right now).
It is really pulling together so much faster than I thought possible. Yesterday I was thinking like Clark that time had pretty much run out, and that I'd (once again) made a wrong assumption thinking this one had more of a chance. But there it is. If it does make it to TS status, it would be so completely symmetric, in some abstract way, and appropriate for the season.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Random Chaos
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SSD Floater 1 has been moved to Zeta. Zeta doesn't look as good now as it did an hour ago.
Oh, this means that we can now say we've had every storm from A to Z 
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Margie
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Special tropical statement just issued! Advisory will be issued in about an hour.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/301605.shtml?
Oh my gosh!
Well now I guess it is ok if I get excited about anticipating this earlier in the week! Whoohoo.
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RC - I wouldn't say that...convection is migrating towards the center from the bands to the east. Growing pains.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Fri Dec 30 2005 11:33 AM)
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Random Chaos
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You realize it is all MikeC's fault, right? He started this thread with the topic "No hurricanes"
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Clark
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To me, I didn't think it could make the quantum leap (in organization) that it did overnight and sustain it long enough to be classified as a bonafide threat -- yet alone a tropical storm. There's another trough to its west heading toward the vicinity of Zeta, though it looks like the bulk of it may be trying to lift north around the storm. I'll be interested to see what the package has to say; my best guess is about 1-2 days of longevity with a slow motion to the NW at first replaced by a track toward the northeast thereafter.
Shear values were initially pretty bad for development -- 60 or 65kt from 850-200mb -- but as the upper-low "built down" to the surface (or at least helped spawn, in some manner, a surface feature) and started to devleop there, the vertical shear values dropped. They now sit in the vicinity of 20kt, which is much more favorable (and not uncommon). The development of Zeta is similar to the other three out there, with some subtle differences -- perhaps with a taste of the "forming on the NE side in the diffluent region of an upper-low" scenario that we saw with some of the western Atlantic's storms.
Nevertheless, I'm glad I didn't say zero percent chance a few days ago -- turns out to be 100%. I love tropical activity that affects no one as much as the next person, but this is just crazy! I certainly hope that every deep-latitude trough in the eastern Atlantic doesn't continue to spawn these features as we move into 2006; they are pretty common features for winter and spring out that way. I'm still a bit surprised by this development, so I'll try to spend some time figuring out why we've got it later today.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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Franklin (junior guy) on the job!
MM
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MapMaster
Weather Guru
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LOL..I thought the same thing! 
MM
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Went ahead and created a new thread -- this season threw curve balls at us from June 1 all the way through December 31, so given that we're likely going to go near the New Year with a tropical storm, it's worth it to have a new thread for that.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Franklin (junior guy) on the job!
MM
Hey! He has written a lot of good stuff, and makes the good calls as well.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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HanKFranK
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well yeah... but he does have some revision to go see to. the hurricane epsilon post-analysis came out just a few days after the storm went out, and he began the report by calling it the last system of the 2005 season. i remember thinking "man, do you feel safe saying that in 2005?"
checked jeff masters' blog. he thinks that if it can scrape under the first bout of shear that it'll get into a supportive environment in early january and perhaps persist a few days until the next trough comes at it. not much of a way to tell, since these shallow systems are sometimes more shear-resistant than expected, but it can just as easily be ripped asunder in the face of the oncoming shear.
next thing i'm wondering is if we have more in the way of out-of-season activity coming up during the winter. it's almost like the north atlantic and north pacific switched roles this year.
HF 1839z30december
Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Dec 30 2005 01:44 PM)
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