Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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10pm Update
Final visible satellite images showed an exposed LLCC with all of the convection in the eastern half of the system. At that time the storm was still moving north at 6 or 7mph. Since then the convection has waned (cooler SSTs and some upper level westerly shear) and the Low Level Circulation Center has been moving to the north northwest - probably at about 10mph. At the moment Beryl is a weak Tropical Storm looking more like a Subtropical Depression, however, if the convection regenerates, so will the cyclone.
5pm Update
The 18/21Z Forecast Advisories will be updated to reflect that recent Recon and satellite data indicate that Tropical Depression #2 has intensified to Tropical Storm Beryl. The forecast track has been adjusted slightly eastward - with Beryl passing about 50 miles east of the Outer Banks Wednesday evening through early Thursday morning.
Original
Tropical Depression #2 formed earlier today about 200+ miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The Depression is currently moving to the north at about 5mph and upper level wind forecasts suggest a drift toward the Outer Banks - and the has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for that area and a Recon aircraft is currently investigating the system.
The LBAR model had a good initial forecast track for the system and the initial forecast is similar, bringing a Tropical Storm (Beryl) offshore the Outer Banks by Thursday morning. This may be a bit too slow and a bit too close to shore, but certainly close enough for a TS Watch to be issued. Although the tropical cyclone may pass a little further offshore, intensification to TS strength seems likely with wind gusts over (perhaps well over) 50mph on the Outer Banks late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Beryl should then turn north and northeast passing offshore on its way toward Newfoundland.
An upper low interacting with a weak tropical wave, well northeast of Puerto Rico in the central Atlantic, may be developing a surface reflection near 22.8N 60.7W at 18/16Z. The upper low is moving off to the northwest at about 10 knots. The system is currently under southerly wind shear - and that shear is forecast to relax somewhat in the next couple of days - but this system still has a long long way to go on the development scale (i.e., not very likely).
A westward moving tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea near 15N 59W at 18/18Z has encountered a brick wall of northwesterly shear and, at least for the next few days, development is not likely.
The averages out around 7N latitude between 35W and 60W longitude - or about 150 miles south of where it normally would be expected at this time of year. A series of upper level lows in the central Atlantic have maintained strong ridging along 15N - and this moderate ridge has prevented the from creeping northward toward 10N latitude.
An active tropical wave near 11N 26W at 18/12Z will get nudged to the west southwest by the aforementioned ridge and this should keep it far enough south to delay any additional development as it crosses the Atlantic.
There is really not much going on over the African continent between 10N and 15N. Earlier waves that have exited the continent have only been of moderate intensity at best, and in spite of some intense cheerleading by a few folks, nothing has happened - its still too early in the season. It looks like the Cape Verde Season is going to remain on hold for a few more weeks.
Cheers,
ED
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