...AREAS OF HVY RAIN APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS SE TX CENTERED ON THE CNTRL TX GULF COAST. RAIN RATES SHOULD BE HEAVIEST ON TUES AS MDLS BRING THE SYSTEM INTO THE TX COAST AND ANY DIURNAL HEATING ENHANCES DEVELOPMENT.
WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RNFL AMTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW FFG VALUES IN THE AREA FROM HOUSTON TO VICTORIA.
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 25/0000 UTC THRU JUL 28/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
...DAY 2...
WRN GULF COAST...
VERY HIGH PWS/85H MSTR FLUX ANOMALIES STRETCHING FROM TEXAS COAST INTO LA THIS PERIOD.12Z NAM IS AN OUTLIER...PER PMDHMD..WITH ITS SOLUTION THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12ZGFS/OZ
ECMWF/12Z CMC/12Z ENSMEAN/9Z SREFMEAN IN FOCUSING HIGHEST AMNTS NEAR UPPER TEXAS COAST.THIS OCCURS WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT 85H JET OFF GULF OF MEXICO ON EASTERN SIDE OF INVERTED MID LVL TROF.SITUATION MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT BASED ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF T.D. IN WRN GOM.GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF MST FLUX AND DURATION OF EVENT...ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4" ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AREA FROM MID TX COAST NORTH TO SW LA.
I apologize for the length of the two above posts. Prediction Centers aren't usually known for short forecasts. Unless the sky is clear.
Last night I saw mention of a possible tropical wave moving into the Cay Sal Bank area of the Bahamas nearing this week's end. The following reinforces that forecast.
...THE CANADIAN MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IT BRINGS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OTHER MODELS STILL SEEM TO SHOW A PATTERN THAT ALLOWS FOR YESTERDAYS HPC/TPC COORDINATED FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AS DEPICTED IN THE UPDATED PRELIMINARY FORECAST FOR TODAY.
0Z CMC still bullish on this wave but more to west now & brushing E coast of Fl. Yesterdays 12Z & todays 0Z
MM5 is picking up on it as well & is similiar to the 06ZGFS keeping it over the Bahamas & outer edge of Fl E coast. This is with the 850 vorticity. Some consistency now. NOGAPS shows nothing & UKMET only goes to 48 hrs.
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