Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Pages: 1
jeff p
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 2
Loc: fl-dade+broward
Ernesto Over Mainland Florida
      #72862 - Wed Aug 30 2006 07:38 PM

this has been a slow season. Ernesto has never gotten it's act together. it has gone it's own way, faily stady state. the forcasts have also done thire own thing. the storm and the forcasts never did jive. people ofcause have paid attention to the forcasts and not the trend of what the storm itself was doing. also i think some of us do not remember the old days when more storms had stayed over cuba, and what that island mass can do to a storm. does anyone else see it this way?


Votes accepted from (Thu Nov 21 2024 06:35 AM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



--------------------
in memory of bob weaver - jeff

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 546
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ernesto Over Mainland Florida [Re: jeff p]
      #72872 - Wed Aug 30 2006 08:53 PM

I voted no and figured I'd say something since the topic was getting tossed around in the other thread...

The 5 day "cone" was a mess, but it usually is, going from TX to FL in two days is pretty bad. Last year there was someone on this forum that said they were always happy when their hometown was in the 5-day cone as that guaranteed them to be out of harms way when all was said and done However the 3 day cone was pretty much spot on.

In regards to the intensity: I believe ever since Andrew fooled them (and then more recently Charlie) the NHC tends to give storms a one category "boost" with the logic that they would rather be safe then sorry. I've never had much faith in this "estimated wind speed at surface" line they feed us, once a storm passes the data almost always points to steady winds that were a good 15-25 mph LESS then what was predicted.

In regards to Cuba's effects: If Ernesto had come off the coast 6-12 hours sooner this could have been a completely different situation. Then again it was such a disogranized mess I don't know how they even called it a TS when it was over Cuba! But if they had downgraded it then everyone in Keys would have ignored it completely. At times I think the NHC does stuff just to CYA. Nothing wrong with that since it protects more people but it makes them look like they don't what they are talking about when they are clearly the BEST at this guessing game we call "forecasting".

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1


Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Extra information
0 registered and 2 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 5702

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center