New Article: CSU releases 2026 season numbers, slightly below average. https://flhurricane.com
Days since last Hurricane Landfall —
US Any:
572 (Milton),
US Major:
572 (Milton),
FL Any:
572 (Milton),
FL Major:
572 (Milton)
Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A potent tropical wave exited the west African coast earlier today. It is a large system centered near 10N 19W at 12/00Z. Wind shear is anticipated to be light for its journey westward.
The has overplayed the intensity of the trough that the model depicts as creating a weakness in the Atlantic ridge near 60W in about a week. The 18Z run of the model takes the associated cold front and moves it south through the entire Florida peninsula late on the 16th - and thats not at all likely to happen - far too early in the fall season for a frontal event to sweep southward through the entire state.
This suggests that the trough itself has been over-emphasized by the model and is not likely to cause enough of a weakness in the ridge to capture what what will likely be the eventual 'Helene'. With low shear and no apparent upper-level obstructions, this system seems to have the initial potential to become a significant storm - but thats still a long way down the road. For now, lets just say that this wave has an excellent chance for further development - with the possibility of a long westward trek.
ED
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2664
Loc: Austin, Tx
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The shortwave loop is really showing off how large the cyclonic wind field is already with (I'll jump the gun a little here and call this) "94l Pending." I'm trying to think if I have seen a wave with better structure so far this year - And while I'm not sure - as there have been so many impressive ones this season, this certainly would have to rank in the Top 5.
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vpbob21
Weather Guru
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Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
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The site is already listing this as 08L.NONAME, so it looks like we are going to have TD #8 at 11:00.
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