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Archives 2002-2009 >> 2006 Forecast Lounge
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allan
Weather Master


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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Possible Thanksgiving day Tropical Cyclone??
      #74144 - Sun Nov 12 2006 08:24 AM

Looks like we may have a storm on our hands for the Carribean and maybe even Florida. CMC, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS have been predicting a storm to emerge in the Carribean for about a day or so now. NOGAPS had this all along. GFS showed it moving very slowly east then sharp turn west on Florida last night. Now it takes it out to sea on the 6:00 model run. Since every global model is on to this, we need to pay attention. As of now, the wave is is in the Pacific Ocean. Though it is forecast to move north into Panama then the favorable Carribean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
Conditions appear favorable according to the Shear Maps on wunderground.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
This is all something to watch for now.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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allan
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Still Quiet [Re: allan]
      #74149 - Mon Nov 13 2006 03:37 PM

Looks like this needs to be Invest 94L.. Convection seems to be organizing around a small circulation. Not saying this will be Mitch or Wilma over again but it might just surprise us in the coming days. I see this become a strong Tropical Storm in a few days and there has been questions on a zig zag track towards Florida. Something to watch but heres the impressive disturbance. Looks like it may develop way earlier then what the models are showing. So what would that mean for the track?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

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