Some of the usual speculation on the various tropical waves that are crossing the pond, but they are all entrenched in the ITCZ - and the ITCZ itself is still too far to the south. Although the MJO has shifted positive, it takes changes in other parameters before a TD can boil up. Scottsvb's analysis on the Main Page article seems realistic - nothing of consequence for awhile yet. When any model generates something within the ITCZ itself, I tend to ignore it. The current waves are staying well south and seem to be stuck on a track that takes them into northern South America. If you want to watch a long shot, I'd monitor the wave at 15N 3W (at 14/18Z) over western Africa - it should move off the west African coast at a slightly higher latitude in a few days.
Cheers,
ED
I agree the waves have been to far south.For people that may not know why that makes a difference,When a wave is south or closer to the equater it can not get the "spin" going.There are bigger words to discribe this but that is it in layman terms.But things should start "cooking" soon.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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