Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Yeah, there'll be a lot bantered about with that wave coming off of Africa this weekend I feel. Conditions aren't ideal due to cooler-than-normal water temperatures near the Cape Verdes, but it looks like all other conditions are favorable and that this feature is going to remain far enough south from the outset so as to avoid most of those complications. It's a relatively easy track forecast for anything that does form out there over the next week -- west to west-northwest at 15 or so mph until it gets near the Lesser Antilles. That's where the fun begins. It's largely too early to speculate beyond that, but we'll be watching how a trough across the northeast United States evolves over the next week as it could be key in determining the ultimate track of this feature -- if it develops, of course. The models are in surprisingly good agreement on something forming out there, I'd just go a tad slower than they figure as of now.
Meanwhile, the mess in the Caribbean festers but without anything really to focus upon. I suspect daytime heating and the associated diurnal convection over Cuba and Hispaniola may be hindering things at least a tad. This one's going to be much slower to move over the next few days. It's something to watch, but as of now I think our more significant action may come from the deep tropical Atlantic in the next few days.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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As for the African wave, it's not just the that is picking up on it. The UKMET and are also showing something developing.
Here is the phase analysis: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07081106/46.html
--RC
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I don't put a lot of stock in 180 Hr forecasts but since model output is always a basis for discussion I will post this link. I tried to research this model to figure out whether it is a stand alone product or what model suite they were using to initialize with no success. Maybe one of the mets can shed more light. In any event it looks like we will be spending more time on this site. This is a wave height model.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_at.anim.gif
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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There seems to be a big rotation centered between Eleuthera and Nassau this morning, but with very little convection associated with it....is this because it is not at the surface or just the result of the drier air to the north of it? All the convection is to the south and we need some to wrap around to the north to cool us off up here.
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2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Trying not to get into the realm of speculation, the 16 day forecast model shows that system holding together all the way to the US. Given that anything past 2-3 days is useless for tracking hurricanes, I don't think anyone should worry about it yet. It could go anywhere still.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html
The pressure is falling around the disturbed weather off of SC.
Bouys show the pressure is dropping and the winds remain out of the West.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41033
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fbis1
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/
any chance for this to develop?
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Doesn't look like anything we should be concerned about. All the models take it out to sea and toward Great Britain as a vigorous low pressure system, but nothing tropical in nature. No closed low, no cyclonic rotation.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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The cyclonic circulation moving west from the Bahamas is in the mid and upper levels and the circulation around that is affecting the area near Cuba/Jamaica. However that area is persisting and there is not much real directional movement, which means it needs to be watched.
A weak trough is dropping southward toward the Florida peninsula which is supposed to enhance instability in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level low...
I would suspect that if anything does "go" in the western Carribean it will move generally westward.
EDS
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doug
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