jbmusic
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Bradenton, Fl
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Well, looks likw this will be a Mexico storm. The models are starting to all agree on that...even the is really coming south to almost the Mex/Tex. border. Looks like the US really dodged a huge bullet on this one. Looks like there won't be anymore back and forth with the models now. Man I feel alot better now.
Shawn
Shawn don't let your guard down yet it is far from over. Everyone along the gulf needs to still keep an eye on this system. THis morning slight north movement shows that.
I know this should have been a PM but I wanted to state this here because if there are new people in here and read his post they make think it is over and stop monitoring the storm
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Jenny Bradenton, Florida
www.bbdigitalphoto.com
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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the forecast models still cannot be trusted.. the ULL is still in FL and if it does'nt make a move before Dean does all bets are all off! Still the models do not have the strength and speed of this ULL Dean is actually moving north of his track, and it's not a wobble either.
I expect if things don't change that Dean will do more of an and make more of a northward approach towards the Central Gulf.
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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You're right. I know this post as well as the last one need to go to the other part on the site. I will keep that in mind for the future. I also know that the models can change at any time...just got a little to excited first thing this morning. I will watch that from now on and start posting in the right areas.
Thanks,
Shawn
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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I found this on Accuweather's site. I've been looking at it over the last couple of days and I do have to say that it's a mess of models but at first there were not really any of these models that had it making a turn towards Texas but now there are quite a few. I just noticed this a second ago. Very interesting.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...&stormNum=3
Shawn
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This is just observation and no indication of how I think right now, I'm still thinking the is generally correct, but I mentioned watching the trends, here's an updated satellite image with the track plotted and the current movement extrapolated.
Mostly interested to see how things are tonight.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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Well, now the cloud tops in the seem to be warming slightly again. Dean may struggle to hold its own for awhile until it gets into the higher oceanic heat content that is further downstream. There may be some shear affecting the system, since it looks like the outflow in the SE quadrant is being impinged a little bit.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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This is just observation and no indication of how I think right now, I'm still thinking the is generally correct, but I mentioned watching the trends, here's an updated satellite image with the track plotted and the current movement extrapolated.
Mostly interested to see how things are tonight.
Excellent graphic, Mike. I believe the will need to make minor adjustments to the track, but that is to be expected with any storm. It looks like Dean is going to move just north of Jamaica, and just south of Haiti, based upon the current movement, which also looks to be in a straight line, rather than a wobble about the forecast line.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 94
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There is one important factor I would like to point out. If Dean continues on the more Northwesterly track it's going to pass very near
if not over a very large mountain in the SW tip of Hati. This would serve to greatly disrupt the circulation of the storm. Just have to wait
and see if that occurs.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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The will adjust the track if the models adjust. I think they will leave it the same or adjust slightly south. The whole overall picture of this will come into affect over the next 24-36 hrs as Dean approaches Haiti-Cuba. I feel Dean will get close to Haiti then turn west with the models and run just north of Jamaica but it could cross it.. no one really knows forsure about Jamaica. ULL is moving more quickly then yesterday..now over SW Florida. With the Ridge begining to build back east over the souther U.S. today and tonight....I see the upper low continuing a W movement alittle quicker and letting Dean turn back west on Sunday. Its a wait and see.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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I just want to remind the rest of newbies like me to keep quiet on the main post during this critical time with Dean. I feel like a child listening to an interesting discussion amongst adults. I don't understand everything that is being said, but I feel privileged to look through a window into a bigger world. There are a lot of professional meteorologists on this site. If Dean so much as passes gas noisily, one of them will spot it and alert all of us. I would like those who (like me) lack formal met training to step back and listen. If you have a specific question, message one of the posting met folks and I dare say they would be happy to answer and if the information is relevant for all, they will post it or clear you to post it. Thank you, I hope I have not offended anyone, and I will go back to lurking right now. 
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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NHC changed the movement from 275 to 290 so i guess they believe it is not just a wobble. Doesnt mean it wont go back the other way and even out eventually tho.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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seabass
Registered User
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Not to be a doomsdayer,but it looks as if a large part of the storm will be over Haiti,and if it goes between Jamacia and cuba more land mass,will hinder strenghting,then if it enters the gulf north of western Cuba,then its really cranks back up.Bad news for gas prices if it gets to the central gulf,so lets hope that the forecast track is right.I am not wishing Dean on anyone ,but the a U.S. strike will be anightmare,still alot of Fema trailors out there.
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OUSHAWN
Weather Guru
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Posts: 101
Loc: Clear Lake,Tx
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Scott, I thought I saw the ULL moving a little quicker this morning. If this continues than this would keep it moving on the more westerly track and not give it a chance to turn toward the north,right? If this is the case, is there anything left out there that would cause Dean to make a more northerly turn?
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weather999
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 25
Loc: southwestern ontario, canada
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Quote:
Scott, I thought I saw the ULL moving a little quicker this morning. If this continues than this would keep it moving on the more westerly track and not give it a chance to turn toward the north,right? If this is the case, is there anything left out there that would cause Dean to make a more northerly turn?
Avila mentioned that Dean was being steered to 290 due to a high in the Western Atlantic as well--it seems that this high has been somewhat overshadowed by the ULL... If the ULL is quickly replaced by a ridge of high pressure that global models say, then Dean will likely be shoved more westerly.
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ChessieStorm
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 49
Loc: Spring Hill, Fla. (Hernando C...
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According to WV imagry, the ULL is now west of Ft. Myers, Fla in the GOM and seems to be moving pretty quick to the west.
It doesn't look like it is having much of an effect on Dean. The outflow over the storm still looks good and clouds on the west side of the storm are under anti-cyclonic high and not being sheared from the ULL.
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dem05
User
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Posts: 368
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL
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I’ve attached an image I created that depicts the upper level features over the and Atlantic Basin. You may want to make a copy to follow along in the discussion. I hope it helps in depicting some of what I am seeing.
I’d also like to repost the Water Vapor Links:
Pacific NW Water Vapor Loop: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/wcwv.html
Atlantic Wide Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
NW Atlantic Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
CONUS Water Vapor: http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
Well, I have a bag full of wrenches, so I may as well start throwing. Before I do however, I do want to caution that I will not be delving into the models or basing my statements on much of what the models have to say. Traditionally, this is a dangerous game, but with indication that the models are having a tough time in initializing storm intensity, the intensity of the upper level features, and problems with the models racing Dean off probably a bit too fast, I’ve decided not to go much farther in my discussion of them than this. With that said, the models very well may have the correct solution albeit they are not performing as well as one would hope.
The breakdown:
The Florida Upper Level Low is on the move again. From my best estimate, the center is probably right about above my head here in SW FL as I type. It does look like it is now trying to tuck south of the High Pressure Ridge. At some point, I will imagine that the Upper Low will have to either stall or phase out. At this point, it shows no evidence of phasing out, but that may happen in a couple days. Earlier, someone asked about Dean’s forward speed slowdown and how the interaction will affect track. If the Upper Level low had been stationary right now, we would likely expect that Dean would be turning North at some point. However, The Upper Level Low is also moving westward, so I would expect it’s overall influences to resulting a general WNW motion for the next 2-3 days. Dean is probably close enough to feel some of these effects now, but it is also far enough away that I would expect to see subtle fluctuations in forward speed and direction. In other words, Dean slows down a bit, the ULL moves a bit further away, the ridge builds backing a bit and Dean will move slightly faster and a little more westerly…Then Dean will catch up again, slow down and move a bit more WNWerly. In general though, I would not dismiss the Idea that Dean may get closer to Haiti than anticipated. Later on down the road, if the Upper Level low does not phase out and it stalls between 90-95W…I would say that chances for problems in the Eastern Gulf would really increase…Otherwise, the further west it can move before stalling or dissipating will result in problems points west.
Side note/disclaimer: The yellow arrows do not show a forecasted track. They are just there to show the upper air flow ahead of Dean.
Looking at the mid latitude weather systems and the jet stream, there are some other considerations to make. The jet stream over the is not zonal like it was a few days ago. (The jet stream is identified in the pink, the movement of the jet stream is outlined with Green Arrows). The trough over the Northeast US is moving out and being replaced by a ridge. The ridge is highlighted in Blue and this is the feature that the Florida ULL will sweep under. With that said, the ridge IS moving east, and may continue to do so through this evolution. There is a pretty darn good trough entering the Pacific. This trough is probably starting to move the US weather patterns along. At this time, I know the $64,000 question would be…Will that trough get into the Gulf area. Unfortunately, I don’t have an answer for that or if it would have a direct affect on Dean…But it is something to watch, and I have included a link to the Pacific NW Water Vapor Loop. With that said, it is not impossible to assume that the Florida ULL may stall in a couple days as the High Pressure ridge moves east and the Upper Level Low moves around to the SW Side of the ridge. For an additional quirk that may be another wildcard factor…It does appear that the remnants of Erin may also be evolving into a weak upper level low feature. I really can’t say that this would have any ramifications on the overall upper level pattern, but over time, it will be interesting to see if anything unfolds with that.
So that’s basically the way I see it right now…Unfortunately there are more questions than answers, but it is still to early to Pinpoint specific threats and/or dismiss any Gulf Coast possibilities at this point. Keep on tracking…
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