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Chances for development of this system are up to 50%, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings could be issued as early as tomorrow for portions of the NW Gulf.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 613 (Milton), US Major: 613 (Milton), FL Any: 613 (Milton), FL Major: 613 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 392
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Upper level feature moving toward Florida....
      #78071 - Sat Sep 08 2007 02:37 PM

I posted something on the other thread about the obvious WV swirl that is spinning about 150 miles due east of Melbourne and nobody has taken up my question. It has storms flaring up on its west side and is sending a solid band of moisture into central Florida. Am I seeing things? There also seems to be storms firing on the south side over the central Bahamas. I do not mean to seem to be system 'mongering' but this feature is pretty close to me and appears headed in my direction. Something like this at the surface could reach the Gulf and quickly bloom into a storm...or is it just an upper level feature?...the CMC shows something forming in the central GOM in 36 to 48 hours (I don't necessarily trust the CMC, but combined with what I see it is intriguing). Can't see it on visible or IR, but Water Vapor seems to show it...that is why I am curious.
PS. Our original forcast for today was 0% chance of rain...upped to 30% and clear area of solid rain headed toward central/west central Fla at this time.

Hmmm checked the afternoon weather discussion and found this...
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...LARGE COMPLEX UPPER LOW AND TROF
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NE TO
GABRIELLE...WILL MOVE ACROSS FL DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
BRINGING AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

SHOWERS ALREADY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE EAST COAST BUT
ARE WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...THUS WILL CARRY 20 POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF OUR CWA. ON SUNDAY THE TROF AXIS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW...AND WILL BRING
ENHANCED MOISTURE...FIRST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...THE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. WILL CARRY 60 POPS SOUTH TRENDING TO 30
ACROSS OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
NUMEROUS AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH DEEP SOUTH FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE...THUS 60 POPS CWA WIDE STILL LOOKS WARRANTED. IN
FACT...MAY NEED TO BUMP POPS UP ON SUNDAY IF MOISTURE AND TROUGH
SPEED UP A LITTLE

Is THAT the explanation? And then the other question....could this develop into something as the trof axis moves from SE to NW and reaches the ultra-warm gulf waters?

I thought this might be a better place to post this.......

Florida Water Vapor Loop - 17:15Z

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2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2

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