xxflcyclonexx
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 24
Loc: Charlotte County
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Looks like it's beginning to make that turn to the NW that the has predicted, right on schedule
Radar loop out of Cuba: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../lbjMAXw01a.gif
Most of the precip is on the south side, beyond the sweep of the radar..
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Olga has held together extremely well, given the environment and track over some pretty high mountains. Several scatterometer passes still reveal a very well-developed surface circulation. Area buoy and ship reports suggest that her pressure is still down around 1006mb.. and that might even be conservative.
The air about Olga is a little less dry now, and shear perhaps a touch less hostile. Getting picked up by the approaching mid-latitude system now triggering lines of strong thunderstorms in east Texas looks plausible. Should Olga hook a hard right and go with the flow, net effective shear may be a little less than what is dogging her now. Furthermore, she would have a brief stint over waters marginally favorable for some more convective flares.
If Olga puts together a few solid hours of deep convection about her center, I can see a situation where advisories are restarted for Tropical Storm Olga. Winds associated with her "remnant" circulation are already blowing up to 40+ knots tonight.
Some nearby ship reports:
ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD (KTS)
SHIP S 0700 22.30 -85.70 130 34 100 35.0
SHIP S 0600 20.20 -84.70 131 98 160 25.1
SHIP S 0200 21.30 -86.40 59 35 360 42.7
This is not any kind of ringing endorsement for regeneration, however. Any reconstituting of Olga is likely to be contained by generally poor conditions: the lower SSTs & moderate to high wind shear, being at the top of that list, methinks. Maybe 1 in 3 odds of pulling off a last-ditch surprise, given her tenacity. December tropical cyclones, you know...
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Left over Olga is now in the GOM... looks like last night, and early this morning it passed over Cancun and emerged into the SGOM... The low is still holding on, but with the approaching cold front... expect it to start turning around launch time to the North than to the northeast... looks like the system is a little left of the track that was last issued on Wed.... I don't see anything that would allow Olga to gain storm structure, except for a few flare ups of storms here and there... i am impressed that the low has managed to stay this well given the hostile enviroment it is in.... I put the low coming in tomorrow morning (if it holds)... near Tampa...  Much needed rain is on the way!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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A quick eyeball of "Olga remnants" using a shear scene type readily yields about a T1.5 tonight. Deep convection is blowing back up, fanned by those upper-level winds, making for a very interesting quasi-tropical/winter severe, mix.
SPC has just issued a new Tornado Watch #739 until 6AM.
Related Meso
DISCUSSION...RAPID DEEPENING SURFACE AND ALOFT OF SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS TN/OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ROTATING
ACROSS SERN STATES. WITH UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS STREAMING NEWD
FROM ERN GULF AHEAD OF REMNANTS OF T.S. OLGA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF ONGOING SQUALL LINE. CURRENTLY PRIMARY
SEVERE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH MESO LOW MOVING ENEWD ALONG WARM
FRONT SRN GA INTO SRN SC. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE SWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL FL AS SHEAR AND MOISTURE BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE THAT CURRENTLY
EXTENDS SSWWD INTO NERN GULF.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2229.html
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