weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Elsewhere
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Happy New Year ( hurricane season new year, that is....)!
Well, perhaps the first of many many "ghost" storms on the horizon. At least if looking at the long range models. As of 6Z today, still showing a downstream disturbance eminating from the around Panama, only to emerge and drift north into the S.W. Caribbean. This, starting at approx. 228 hours out, and slowly deepening and drifting north to an eventual 998mb low off S.W. Florida coast.
Though I would love a nice wet sloppy storm to just soak all of Florida, replenish the water table and rid us of all the local smoke around from Everglades fires, I am less interested ( or concerned ) in the specific consideration of the long range accuracy, as I am with regards to anxiously seeing what might develop as an overall "pattern of tendancy". Meaning, this low may very well develop and would not be out of sinc with Climatology, however most times such a low would tend to migrate westward and develop as an East Pac system. I beleive that a truly developing early system that would move north to N.W. ( either towards Florida or the Gulf states ), would prove indicative of a general trend of overall long wave pattern and overall motion of several Tropical Cyclone tracks during the season. Conversly, a developing cyclone in the far southern Caribbean, only to move due westward, may equally prove a greater ridging pattern over the far Western Atlantic, thus keeping any low latitude systems south and less of a problem to the S.E. U.S. Such was the case last year. The other pattern of interest, would of course be one which would seem to indicate a potential cyclogenisis "hotspot". Again, Climatology favors the Gulf and W. Caribbean early and late during our Atlantic season, yet there are years where few or no storms form in these areas, and other years where a fairly high prevelance of formation seems to develop.
Finally, and if for no other reason of curiousity......., doesn't it seem as if in some years we tend to look at perhaps the , UK, or models and say to ourselves "....i've never seen this model so misserably off...", or in some years ".....this is the one model that has been pretty on target.....". In recent years, it seems as if certain models show certain tendancies, and the models are "tweaked" to continually attempt to increase overall accuracy. I will look anxiously, as is part of "our sport", to see if the tries to hold onto and continue to predict cyclogenisis with this system. For that matter, am starting to look at the long range European model
to see if it eventually picks up on whatever the might be seeing downstream.
Final note......., has been fairly consistantly in trying to develop this low in the S. Caribbean for several runs now. Then, comes the next run, and POOF, could all be gone. Such is "our sport" of tracking, forecasting, viewing, analizing, and understanding, or chasing Tropical Cyclones.
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum. Note that the Storm Forum is for existing systems and Invests, and for seasonal storm predictions.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon May 19 2008 03:30 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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long range is back at it again for around the first of the month... looks like the central carb. pressures will be low... and a low may try to move up towards the north central carb. This is a sign that things are changing and we are getting into the season, which starts june 1st for us Atlantic Folks
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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I was in ORL yesterday and a TV Met there indicated the same thing...he hinted a development before May 30. It is not uncommon for some kind of trough to drift up from the west central Carribean this time of year and usher in the pattern change.
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doug
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weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
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Three WFO's along the Gulf Coast have mentioned this system in their Area Forecast Discussions:
Lake Charles: "LATER NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE AND THE CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP A COLD CORE LARGE SCALE AND STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE YUCATAN. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ON THE OUTER
PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST. INCLUDED MINIMAL
PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AN OUTER
CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS IS STILL VERY PRELIMINARY SINCE THE
DEEPENS THE LOW TO 998HPA AT THE SURFACE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN A
WEEK DOWN THE ROAD. I'M FAVORING THE EURO WHICH HAS A MUCH WEAKER
1006HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH
MODELS MORPH THE SYSTEM INTO A HYBRED [sic] WARM CORE LOW NEXT WEEKEND."
Houston: THE AND WERE DIFFERING IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TROPICS
BY DAY SEVEN. THE HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE PRESENT
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF COAST STATES. THE HAD A STRONGER RIDGE
IN PLACE FROM MEXICO ALL THE WAY EAST INTO FLORIDA. THE AND
ECMWF DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH BOTH MODELS THEN GOING IN DIFFERENT
DIRECTIONS WITH THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR IT IS BEST TO
SAY THAT THE TROPICS BEAR WATCHING."
Corpus Christi: THEN TRIES TO BREAK UPPER RIDGE UP
INTO WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER REGIME OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WHILE BUILDS A STRONGER RIDGE WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. STILL FEEL WESTERN PORTION OF UPPER
RIDGE...IF IS RIGHT...WILL INFLUENCE SOUTH TEXAS WEATHER AND
BESIDES FORECAST MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED (PWATS GENERALLY BELOW
1.5 INCHES)...SO DO NOT EXPECT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WHAT REALLY
HAPPENS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT MOST LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DECIDES TO GO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...IF THIS WAVE DEVELOPS. SOMETHING TO WATCH."
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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After many days of indicating a system in the north carribean/GOM, I am sceptical of the scepticism as to the model. Only time will tell but as others here have already indicated- any modeling beyond 3 days is of definite low confidence. 
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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Seriously. Taking some sort of rainy, closed system up out of the Carib following the current moisture trail into the SW-South Florida Coast. Too early to believe in a point where it would hit or what it would be but it's not just the anymore.
So... thoughts?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
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Posts: 428
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
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We are enjoying a High pressure system off the east central coast of Florida- we have enjoyed low humidity levels this weekend- winds blowing out of the north and north-east up to 20MPH- has been unusally dry for the Memorial day weekend- it felt good. It is hard to believe we are at the doorway of another season. If a system does develop in the western carribean- than conditions need to improve to allow for growth of this system (Arthur?) . Models are just that- models and I will have no high confidence until they've run consistently within 72 hours of its 'birth'.
(Post moved to appropriate Forum. Note that the Storm Forum is for existing systems/invests and for seasonal forecasts. Inputs in the current Storm Forum thread are limited to seasonal predictions and rationale (if any).
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 27 2008 09:23 AM)
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