Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Indications suggest that Invest 91L has reached Tropical Depression strength in the Gulf of Mexico south of Mobile, Alabama. Model outputs now reference Storm 05, so I would anticipate Bulletins on this system at 21Z. Mid to upper level winds indicate a movement toward the north Texas coastal area. Moderate easterly windshear is likely to inhibit any significant development but folks in the north Texas to western Louisiana coastal areas should monitor this TD closely.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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As often typical of shallow Gulf systems with weak steering currents, TS Edouard has becone stationary over the past couple of hours. Best guess satellite position estimate is 28.0N 90.4W at 04/14Z. The storm structure remains somewhat disorganized and the current intensity of 50mph may be a bit generous. Low to mid level steering currents in the central Gulf have become more south southeasterly. I'd recommend that everyone along the Gulf coast from Pensacola westward needs to closely monitor this storm for possible changes in track and intensity.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The overall structure of Edouard is again slowly improving around the core of the cyclone with the center clearly evident near 28.3N 90.9W at 04/16Z. Movement to the west northwest has resumed at 5 knots. Should this trend continue, the primary threat would shift closer to the Texas/Louisiana border for landfall Tuesday morning.
NHC has extended the Tropical Storm Warning westward to Port O'Connor, Texas.
ED
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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
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Seems that TS Edouard is quite the chameleon.
Here's a wrap on the storms' progress so far, for those just tuning in.
After spinning up rather quickly to a tropical storm from what seemed like a very meager blob of convection and with a mostly exposed low level circulation center (LLC) ...
"WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF." (NHC's first advisory on the newly designated TS, quite an impressive start, I'm sure all would agree.)
... Edouard then staggered overnight because persistent Northerly shear kept the LLC too exposed for too long and, with the deepest convection displaced too far from the storm's center, it took it's eventual toll.
As LoisCane pointed out last evening ...
Quote:
"Edouard looks weak and shows badly on satellite imagery. There is an exciting pulse of convection but it is not where the storm is supposed to be. ... It is a Tropical Storm but looks more like a depression turning into a storm to my eyes. Still coming together."
From last night's 's 11pm EST discussion ...
"CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER." (MSLP rose back to 1008 mb during this time)
And 6 hours later, from the 5am EST discussion ...
"NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ... IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.
But since then ...
RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.
And, even though the most recent advisory dropped the winds a tad to 40 Kts. (due to the overnight weakening, no doubt) ...
"SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS"
I've been watching the long-range Doppler radars and satellite loops, and there is no doubt that the deepest convection has been steadily overspreading the LLC, and is now finally wrapping around to the N and NW quadrants. And a clear 'eye-like' feature is now showing up quite nicely on Doppler radar.
"THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ... A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL ..."
I'm sure you all know where the TS Warnings and Hurricane Watches have been posted, so I won't elaborate here, but I encourage everyone in the affected areas to be aware and be prepared.
So, as Lois so eloquently pointed out, Edouard is "... still coming together."
That brings you up to date as of this writing. Turning this over now to the 'day crew' and look forward to reading all your posts later. (Hawaii is 6 hours behind Florida)
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Teal95
Unregistered
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We just landed after 8.6 hrs in Edouard. On our last pass out of the storm (NE quadrant), we saw 61 kt flt level winds and the pressure from the last sonde drop was 999 MB. Our ARWO figured it would become a CAT 1 probably later tonight. The next crew is briefing now and should takeoff around 0400Z for the 0600Z fix.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looks like Edouard may become Hurricane Edouard before landfall. Following in the footsteps of Humberto last year.
Quick calculation of 61knots at Flight Level would be near 63 mph at the surface. Using a 90% reduction factor for a 700mb Flight Level.
I believe that Capt. Mitchell should be the ARWO on the next flight. As was the case last night.
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