cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Several days of a lingering area of lower pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico, stretching from the Bay of Campeche and linking up with a lingering tail of Fay, have begun to gel in a concentrated fashion in the Bay of Campeche.
Conditions have become a little more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis. has just increased their level of potential for this feature to develop within the next 48 hours from Low (Less than 20%) to Medium (20% to 50%). Data availability is at a real premium in this area, and today all of the recon resources are appropriately focused on Gustav. However, from what little surface reports are available, a surface circulation may be trying to form under a persistent and deep cluster of thunderstorms now positioned entirely over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf.
Upper level winds are only slightly favorable, with some shear and a little bit of dry air being imparted from the north-northwest. On the other hand, it is located in a region of favorable vertical instability, conducive atmospheric water content, and above supportive SSTs. Finally, 96L is still well-away from any preexisting tropical cyclones.
Through the next 36 or 48 hours, the two greatest challenges against further development are likely to be its proximity to land, and its separation from a preexisting weak mid-level low that appears to be centered inland to its south, which could disrupt attempts at establishing a vertically stacked circulation.
Despite the detractors, this is nonetheless also a climatologically preferred region for tropical cyclones to form in the Gulf of Mexico. Being that the disturbance is rather small, it is also especially worth keeping at least one eye on, as smaller disturbances often have some ability to spin up quickly, as seen most recently with Gustav.
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