TPuppy
Registered User
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Posts: 9
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Where is everyone? I have been a long time lurker (2002), always turning to for education, insight, and a dose of reality. Now when we need these things most, there is nothing forthcoming from our philosophers. Personally, I agree totally that this in not the place for ‘wishcasting’, bashing, foul language, or any conversations not directly related to tropical weather. On the other hand, one line comments or questions should not be prohibited. If you think about it, most of the topics initiated by the moderators are in fact one solid comment or question. As a small business owner, this site assisted our company in having all of our ducks in order prior to Charlie, and Jeannie. Had it not been for the wise caution and insight supplied by the posters of this site, we would have been caught off guard and much behind the eight-ball. As a small business government contractor had we not anticipated the possible impact and made the necessary preparations we could have lost our contract or some of our employees may have major loses or had more damage to their property. As it is, lessons learned, I have a real problem with the media and dealing with these very unpredictable entities. Locally, in Orlando, the four news affiliates (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX) have started overruling the with their very expensive modeling software, some more than others. They may have gotten parts of Fay correct, but what does this mean as a trend? After watching the local news this morning I ran into my neighbors and talked to a couple of friends, some of local media have made it sound so likely that Hanna will just brush us and head north, that all of the people I talked to this morning stated that Hanna is nothing to worry about, but OMG what about NOLA and Gustav!! Now a few hours later, I’m hearing thank god Gustav will not be as bad as predicted it is only a Cat 3! Hey guys, this is the mentality that you, , FEMA and the government have to deal with. Therefore, with that said, this IS more art than science, but for some of us, reading about the ‘what ifs’ can make the difference. Walking my dog this morning, I noticed a home that had put up plywood, and another that had ‘sand’ bags in front of the garage door, granted they both have occupants that work for utility companies and may anticipate being called to duty away from this area and not being able to prepare for a later threat, but it made me stop and think. Don’t ask all of us lurkers and newbees to be as well versed as the experts. Attacks of life, home, and livelihood are personal. I have promoted this site and have educated many people with the intelligence I have gleaned. Let’s keep the momentum going. If band-width and equipment is a problem, by all means let’s get the donations coming in.
Until then, maybe limiting some of the outside information should be considered, the most important parts are the talk/interaction. Lately, instead of going to for the updates I go directly to the NCH and sites, I as a tax payer am paying for it, and they haven’t let me down yet. Not sure this helps with your problems, as I am not an expert in band width either.
Respectively your loyal lurker
TPuppy, Kissimmee, FL
(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2008 02:27 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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Puppy we seperate this into sections on where to post now, thats why you probably dont see alot of post in each section. There is the Gustav lounge and the Hanna lounge that people are also posting up their insights and different things. Also sometimes when it becomes pretty clear where systems like gustav might hit, the wishcasters leave that aren't in the cone, so there is less traffic...lol.!!!
Anyways I'm glad the adjusted Hanna with the recon cause WOW the 11am plot was really off.
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I don't know where the idea of "one line is bad" came from. The rules state Low Content posts, which usually are just one line. It was created to get a lot of clutter of "Hey cool", "I agree!", "thanks" style posts that would flood the site and bury the informative ones making them hard to find. If it contains real information, short or long, it's not a problem. Bandwidth is not an issue, the problems had absolutely nothing to do with bandwidth, and I'm not sure where that came from either.
Anyone that takes the current moment in time as (Oh it won't be as bad because it's category 3) now is being ignorant about how major hurricanes form and maintain themselves, Gustav is still forecast to be a Category 4 storm later. And 3 or 4, or 5 it's still going to cause a lot of problems for the area it makes landfall at.
Hanna most likely won't affect us on a purely statistical look, but you also have to take in all the models and the general confusion, it just means it should be watched Florida is in the cone.
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Bev
Weather Guru
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Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
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I've been on here since 2004, and I still remain confused as to what should be posted in the main topic and what should go to the lounge. I understand the obvious wishcasting goes to the lounge. But what about questions and observations on what might affect a particular storm? Do these go to the lounge? Are there strong guidelines somewhere about what should be posted where?
I tend to agree with TPuppy that the volume of information has dropped off quite a bit, not sure whether that's confusion over where to post, fear of posting the wrong thing in the wrong place, or just a normal trend.
That being said, I am so appreciative of those knowledgeable people who do post and give us the reasoning behind their observations. It's always fascinating to learn more. Thank you John and Mike for giving them the ability to do so. As well as all the links to relevant storm information. I am like Colleen, I wake up and hit refresh.
Thanks!
Bev
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Survived Charley at Cat 4 under a staircase. Won't do that again. I watch SW Florida and Abaco primarily.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Bev~ Good post, and it not only echo's concern others have raised, but those that I have directly raised myself. In my opinion, this site's forum participation is far less than that which I recall some time ago. Granted, I appreciate the slippery slope that comes with allowing a venue for expression and opinion. On one hand, promoting open thought, expression and opinion will often permit a great deal of sharing of information, scientific education, and different perspectives. On the other, this very open ended expression can lead to issues such as "flame wars", outright inaccurate information, false reporting of data, and potentially undue panic, not to mention potential legal liability issues for the sites owners/administrators.
.....and then one touches upon the subject of "wishcasting". This one is not only funny, but what I would define as a stuffy persons definition of one who either wishes to see certain weather events or one who subjectively might forecast based on their own possible impact of such a a weather event. One previous post somewhat accurately paints a picture of those who wishcast, suddently dissappear when a given weather event no longer pertains to them or their immediate area. Well.........? Sure! This in fact makes sense, nor should one be ashamed of one's greater focused interest based upon their knowledge of local geography, weather conditions impact on and in relation to familiar economy and socialogy. This does not make one less knowledgeable about tropical cyclones, but does perhaps make one less familier with potential impact on other regions. This is not unlike comparing an opinion that someone such as Joe Bastardi of Accuweather may share for a storm impact for any region within the U.S., verses a local weatherman who will issue their forecast or chime in when a storm might impact their immediate region. Welcome to the "human perspecitve". It is of our nature to tend to communicate in perspective of relationship to "us" or "ourselves". If proded ( and supplied a thesaurus and dictionary ), I could be paid a fee to provide my own commentary, opinion, scientific analysis, and forecast on severe weather for New England, Southeast U.S., Northern Plains, etc. Except, such an offer has not been made to me; that and I have a "day job", so i'll chime in perhaps when a weather topic is in my "wheelhouse", or area of greater perspective, or yes....., perhaps even my neighborhood.
I perceive that among several different Administrators and especially several different moderators, a unintentiional contradiction of post appropriate discussion has occured. On one hand, chat oriented, or model discussion, or unsupported opnion by others, not of "the A Team", has been chastised and in often cases simply redeposited into other forums. While appropriate in some cases, other very similar submissions will be posted by another "team member", and such postings are permited to remain. Then there is the appearant lack of technical submissions, whether by other MET's, MET students, or related industry professionals. Why have they chosen to not provide their analysis or forecast? Beyond the "rule enforcing" Moderators and Administrators, we now have left a few nodding heads - those who feel a need to type, if even to most often basically state the obvious such as "...we really need to heed the advisories..", or "....remember that now is the time to check your family plan and supplies...". I guess at minimum, such posts are at least non inflammatory and non controversial, if not altogether lacking in original thought or insight.
Perhaps that is the very element that is being slowly eroded from this particular site forum. The openly permissive exchange of data, satellite, recon, model, climotology, or even intuitive offerings of perspective, science, and opinion. All because as very clearly streesed, this site's primary purpose and function is to offer accurate and non hyped information regarding tropical cyclones. The lines and perameters regarding discussion have become so strict and defined ( at least by some ), that it is my personal feeling that most knowledgable weather enthusiasts, on air weatherman, MET professors, students, and retirees, storm chasers, etc, have simply lost interest in the restrictive nature of conversation and "hand slapping", that they just lurk like the greater many that view this site. That, and log in and actually participate in one of at least 2 or 3 other progressive and very active Tropical Weather Forum web sites. As I see it, this site currently offers a very well designed format to easily locate any form of data, satellite, forecasts and discussions, and viable links to model guidance. A nice neat "one stop shop" for most items I might wish to see in relationship to varying Tropical Cyclones. Beyond that, the forums have been diluted to something less organized and reliable than most good blog sites, yet a nicely designed and navigatable site offering discussion and conversation, which I might compare to the condradiction of free speech in Communist China.
I think that until the owners and/or administrators of this site choose to embrace and encourage real communication ( ie. opinion, humor, dissagreement, unapologetic severe weather enthusiasts, etc. ), than you will see less and less insight and perspecitve from scientists, weather enthusiasts, media, emergency personel than what you might have been accustomed to in the past.
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
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I want to thank everyone for their honest comments in this thread and encourage others to post their insight and feelings. An open dialogue is what helps make this site a very good source of information.
Unfortunately at this late hour, I don't have the chance to respond to a lot of the posts yet, but I do want to add some insight to parts of weathernet's post and hopefully expand upon it with some of my feelings in general.
Quote:
Then there is the appearant lack of technical submissions, whether by other MET's, MET students, or related industry professionals. Why have they chosen to not provide their analysis or forecast?
The lines and perameters regarding discussion have become so strict and defined ( at least by some ), that it is my personal feeling that most knowledgable weather enthusiasts, on air weatherman, MET professors, students, and retirees, storm chasers, etc, have simply lost interest in the restrictive nature of conversation and "hand slapping", that they just lurk like the greater many that view this site. That, and log in and actually participate in one of at least 2 or 3 other progressive and very active Tropical Weather Forum web sites.
I think that until the owners and/or administrators of this site choose to embrace and encourage real communication ( ie. opinion, humor, dissagreement, unapologetic severe weather enthusiasts, etc. ), than you will see less and less insight and perspecitve from scientists, weather enthusiasts, media, emergency personel than what you might have been accustomed to in the past.
I think that if you compare 2008 to 2002 or 2003, there are actually more meteorologists who post on this site now versus then. While it may be true that those of us who might've used to be able to post more -- myself, Jason K., and HF -- have not been able to post as much in the past couple of years, there are others who have joined the community and offer their insight when and where possible.
All professionals are different in what they enjoy, but many of them truly do like a more structured, technical discussion. Many of them also enjoy less structured discussion. Where's the perfect balance? I don't know. It's something that evolves for me on a continual basis. And, to some degree, all websites evolve on a continual basis. My point is that I don't think it's fair to blanket the community on either side -- for every meteorologist that may be turned off by a stricter moderation scheme you'll find another who appreciates it a lot.
Truly, life simply just gets in the way for many of us when it comes to what time we have and how much we can share. We all have jobs, families, etc. that have to come first. I greatly enjoy posting here because of the community but also because of the friendships made and the feeling that the knowledge I have is making a difference based off of the feedback I receive. But, everything else has to come first.
As for the rest, particularly related to moderation policies and site structure, I will leave that for those more actively involved with that part of the site. Just rest assured that everyone here does care what the users think and wants this site to truly be "Hurricanes Without the Hype," a place where open discussion and information sharing takes place.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Wow, thought someone left. Glad most of us are here and I think a lot of people are reading but not posting.
I miss the posts or activity yet what is here tends to be top rate. It is not my site. It is not my call what goes up, stays or is desired.
I love Flhurricane.com it is one of my all time favorite sites and I will continue to read, post and lurk as long as I am online which is often..
I started a blog a few years back so that I could be silly or topical or do my thing when this board and another board were fighting out what was and wasn't correct. That gave me my own freedom of expression and I've come to love blogging.
But, this is where I go for info.. to read Clark, Jason, Ed and even Hank Frank when he stops in to post. Also, the content on the main page is perfect if you ask me. I wouldn't make too many changes anywhere except to say... can we get some good conversation going on what is likely to become a Category 5 storm today, within hours... if not already.
How often do you see a storm go from TS status to Cat 5 in less than 24 hours before your eyes??
Otherwise, I'll PM friends here.
And, all sites have some moderation or they go the way of a posting board from the late 90s out of PB. Such fun but if you go there now there is little good and a lot of "bring it on" posts to sift through. And, let's get real. A lot of the same people are here that are on other boards sometimes with the same name and other times with different ones. And, there are other boards that have been much more moderated than this especially this year where the person in charge has clamped down like a pit bull on any sense of community or expression of thought that could or might be deemed unwanted. I don't know. Maybe people are stressed in their own lives and they turn to online to be control freaks or fools or funny or just different. I can't say or won't, but I think it's nice here that I can read something about someone, where they are from (or say they are from) and PM them privately or leave my tag for my blog or read other people's blogs or signatures and have pictures to look at as it gives me a better feel for Colleen and Hugh and Clark and Ed in Atlanta with the great poetry on his blog or So FL Cane... these are people I know and have come to love in my online way and they are my "go to" community for the best information around.
Maybe in raising the bar a bit too high a bit too much is lost and scattered but I think the way to resolve that is to
POST and POST NOW about Hanna who is threatening the East Coast and Ike who is now a massive Cat 4 and may threaten us all again in a few days. Pass the site to friends who have left for whatever reason and get going.
POST.
There is a Hanna forum, an Ike one..one for joke and one for wishcasting and most of us just post on the main topic anywhere or I do.
I love it here and don't want to miss anyone but I would like to read some hardcore weather discussion on Hanna and Ike and whatever comes along down the pike..
so post... forgive and let live ...
Bobbi/lois
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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We made a change, model talk is ok on the main page, and general path, but start picking landfall points 5 days out or if you don't really have a lot of facts, but "My cat is acting funny so it'll probably go here", or I know it's 7 days out but I think it'll hit Miami. That's better for the lounge.
Why? Because people tend to believe what's on the main thread, right or wrong, and I usually hear about it, sometimes from panicked individuals. Which is entirely against the no hype item on the front page. Misinformation or hype is worse than nothing at all. Still I'd rather respond to misinformation and explain why than just delete it -- which I absolutely dislike to do. (and I terribly dislike editing anyone else's posts for most any reason). But I give the people that help out with the site some freedom to do it.
The other thing is this site encourages sharing of information, links to other sites and places are encouraged, which is different than other places. We aren't the end all be all and have no intention of trying to be the "sole source of hurricane information." Because that is silly. We hope to be one of many sources you check, which I hope includes the National Hurricane Center (Well before us even).
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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As you can see from the dialogue in this thread, some folks enjoy an uncluttered site while others enjoy a more unstructured site - and its often difficult to find the proper balance, since either approach will drive away some users - and that includes Mets that take the time to share their insight. As a partial solution, years ago I tried to develop the Storm Forum as a place to go for serious no-nonsense discussions on active tropical systems. Sometimes it worked and sometimes it didn't. It is not, however, a Forum just for Mets - its simply a forum for good analysis and conclusion.
When a storm threatens Florida, I still need to do the 'preparation' things that everybody else does - and the aftermath cleanup that follows. In my case, my involvement with local Emergency Management can severely limit my on-site time if the storm could affect Florida, but I do find the time to send out a few emails to the site officials and often these get reposted on the site - which is fine. Here is one that I sent out during the 'Hanna' event - thought that you might enjoy it.
"As soon as I figure out what Hanna is going to do, will somebody please let me know! A few of you have asked if I had any ideas about Hanna, and I do, but most of them are not fit to print. However, I am fairly certain that Tropical Storm Hanna will eventually take a northwesterly track (or west northwesterly, or north northwesterly or northerly or hang around the southern Bahamas for a few more hours - or days- or weeks - or years, or all of the above). I'm pretty sure that I can rule out none of the above.
Actually, Tropical Storm Hanna has just completed a cyclonic loop and is now located about where she was 36 hours ago. She has maximum sustained winds of 55mph and a central pressure of 994MB (29.35"). Earlier today Hanna was moving to the north northwest at 8 knots, however she has now stalled - again. I would expect Hanna to take a northwest track for the next 24 hours - perhaps even west northwest at times - and then a more north northwest track offshore the east Florida coast. There are some indications that Hanna may be trying to redevelop a new center a little further north of her current position in the Caicos Islands - but that is a wait-and-see situation since this morning Hanna had three distinct centers of cyclonic circulation.
Significant weather impacts from Hanna are most likely in east central Florida from Thursday afternoon/evening through Friday morning. Until Hanna develops a distinct center - and that center starts to move (any direction will do), the extent of those weather impacts remain largely unknown. If the track bends a little more to the west northwest before resuming a northwest motion, the storm will come closer to the coast and, since Hanna is expected to regain hurricane strength by the time that it gets closer to east central Florida, the impacts of wind and rainfall will be greater. If she takes a more north northwesterly track she will remain further offshore and the impacts will be minor. She does have a large convective circulation so additional intensification seems likely. At the moment, tropical storm conditions are still possible along the east central Florida coast and immediately inland from the coast (west to the I-95 area). Rainfall could be about an inch if she stays further offshore or up to four inches if she passes closer to the shore - and its still too early to give a good definition to the windfield but I've been working on it (for about three days - and nights). At the moment it does look like Hanna could make landfall somewhere along the South Carolina coast on Friday evening - and eventually pass over or near southeastern New England on Sunday as an gale.
Hanna's partner in mayhem, Tropical Storm Ike, is in the central Atlantic near 21.4N 52.0W at 2PM and moving to the west northwest at 17mph with sustained winds of 70mph gusting to 85mph. Ike should become a hurricane later today or this evening and start a more westerly movement at 18-20mph in about 24 hours. Ike has a good chance to eventually grow into a major hurricane and could pose a threat to Florida - probably next Tuesday - so my advice is to keep a close watch on this one. He is just too far away right now to define exactly what area Ike might threaten - but it is highly unlikely that Ike will remain a 'fish' storm in the open waters of the Atlantic.
Finally there is Tropical Storm Josephine - way out there somewhere west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands with sustained winds of 65mph. Josephine is moving to the west northwest at 12mph and will probably remain at sea - but there is plenty of time to watch this one (especially if we still have electricity - don't get excited - just a little tired weatherman humor).
Stayed tuned for any late-breaking news on your least favorite summertime drama - a.k.a. the 'Parade of Storms'. All humor aside, Hanna is still a bit of a question mark for our area - and Ike is likely to be a serious problem for somebody. I'll keep you posted."
Cheers,
ED
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TPuppy
Registered User
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Posts: 9
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To reiterate many of the post, hear! hear! to the talents of all those in the , all of whom I have great respect for. Not a piece of land has been left out of the 4-5 day cone, so heads up, you’ll! Point in fact, this is an accolade to the talents of the , for those of us that read the discussions, we would know to disregard the 4-5 day cone, as it is uncertain. But how many of you read that sentence as being sarcastic? Come on you know who you are. This maybe one of the issues the is experiencing, text does not emote. An honest comment or retort may be taken as a flame; a calculated thought or debate on some one posters opinion, as a personal attack.
Yes, I had questioned the participation of the ‘in the know’ crowd, but I am beginning to read the information that I felt was valuable and made this whole mess a little more manageable. Thanks to all that post such informative information, insights and clarifications.
I’m thinking to make things easier to understand, because not all of us have the time to research old archives, look back on past storms, and advance our degree in meteorology, when the storms are approaching, that maybe the main page is just the ‘qualified’ met guys discussing (qualified by the administrator and not by degrees, (possibly adding a “I want this registered persons comments on the main page†button, always approved by the administrators) and only one lounge (the active TC lounge). Then all posts from the main page (approved experts) also show up in the lounge at the exact time stamp as posted. Then the rest of us that want to hear the other chatter, want to have links, sundry information pointed out to us, have questions answered (simple and complex), or comments on the ‘main page experts comments’ can spend some extra time in the lounge.
The other thing I realized was that without the one line posts of things such as:
‘I totally agree’
‘good call’
‘great logic’
by some of the screen names that I recognized, (and some that I didn’t have a clue).
I couldn’t tell if I should be listening or if it was just a bunch of poppycock.
Was the last extremely involved post all fiction or all fact?
Does everyone agree, disagree, or just not have time for this diatribe?
The one line posts aren’t all that insignificant.
They also made me go back and reread the post if one of my ‘go to’ guys was responding in the positive or in the negative.
To get a larger audience, although I realize this is not a money making sight, you need to appeal to the new comers and make them feel welcome. ‘In the heat of the moment’ (not to seem alarmist) repeating certain information is just good for business. Tell us what the dovak shows us in laymen’s terms. Tell us why the IR looks more ominous than it should and why; then tell us what else to look at and what to look for. Bring us along into your world, educate us.
I have read all the recent comments, and I have thought hard on why I do not want to look for a better place to get my insight. Please PM me with your thoughts.
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