BillD
User
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Posts: 398
Loc: Miami
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You are not going to get any better guesstimates than what the is reporting now. Everyone from Homestead to Savannah needs to stay alert.
Bill
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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As earlier noted everyone should remain alert. There will be plenty of time to evacuate as it isn't a immediate threat to the US. Folks are just gonna have to pay close attention.
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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[quote The Weather Channel and most media leave out a big portion of the cone.
I don't know what media you refer to, but on the 7:00 PM news NBC6 out of South Florida clearly showed that we were within the 3-day cone, and repeatedly said we are not in the clear.
Who cares what or any other national news source says, it is the local news sources that have the relevant information. It is local sources that people should be listening to.
Bill
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looking at latest IR loop and surface ob in Pine Cay looks like Hanna has moved more towards the southwest as winds continue to back to the ESE now and pressure steadily rising as it slips more the southwest of the island. As it almost appears an eye is forming and moving more to the southwest on the black and white IR loop.
Edited by Joe (Tue Sep 02 2008 12:35 AM)
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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert
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Posts: 105
Loc: florida
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I agree it looks like its starting to move alittle now more to the southwest. these models still dont have a good handle on this. As you can see that the ukmet has its own way putting this closer to florida and the other models taking it more on a northwest into the carolinas. With this southwest movement going on right now I say the ukmet has a better idea of what this storm is going to do then the other models that just my thinking i might be wrong but if you look these models and the movement of the storm the ukmet so far is right on !
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_model.html#a_topad
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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It could be just a wobble SSW cause it may be going ENE just a few hours later in a loop! Anyways we will know more again by morning and also from radar out of Cuba. I wish our base had that radar working. Cuban radars are horrible.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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it hasn't gotten lost on the forecasters at as to how well the UKMET has performed and they have to give what it is telling them some weight. The new run continues to show a southwest motion but a fraction of what it was earlier today on its 12Z run; thus the track was once again nudged to the east of FL by about 100 miles. As Ike approaches from the east and Hannah in the next couple of days now that Gustav is inland; they will begin sampling the environments of both systems and the models will begin to respond to that data in addition to what they have now; once that data is added; you will note a much better defined analysis of those systems.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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The problem with all these models is all those different tracks and what you're looking at for your location is at least 48 hours away, and I wouldn't be surprised that you don't see a tropical storm watch or a hurricane watch when Hannah begins to get moving and is within 48 hours of the coast. That said, as concerned as you may be, these people are very, very good at what they do. If felt your area was to be threatened they'd issure something by now. There is alot of activity going on right now, and Ike is 5 days away from taking up residence where Hannah is now and if the long range models bear out, it too will be in the GOM in a week. I counted six systems out there, two weren't tropical, but everybody simply has to trust that the knows what they're doing and will notify us when it's time. We have the technology to see the same information they do, but we don't have the experience to analyze and have the resources made available to us like they do. Problem with so many models is, alot of information. Why do you think a site like this exist in the first place? Think of what life was like before all of this and didn't have the information to look at yourself!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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Hanna has been pushed to the south quite a bit. It´s to the east of Great Iniagua (the island nearby) and so it´s quite much south of the forecast track. Convection increases after a minimum again. The minimum could had been caused because of the slow movement and upwellung of cold water. If I look at the sat pics, I would say, there is still some shear, but also a poleward outflow channel forming!? I think, this storm could give us some more surprises in the future.
Near the Cap Verde islands TD 10 has formed. That isn´t a surprise and it could intensify to TS Josephine today. It looks very healthy. So we could have four named storms in the evening: the dying Gustav, Hanna, Ike and Josephine. May be the next days we see three hurricanes at the same time with Hanna, Ike and Josephine. So it´s really quite busy! By the way, what´s the record for TS/ hurricanes at the same time?
edit: I see, the shear takes it´s toll according to the last AMSRE pass. The center is to the north and not the east of the island, with the mass of convection well to the southeast of the center. 
Edited by Raymond (Tue Sep 02 2008 05:41 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Hanna is just a very hard storm to forecast and as soon as we see really where and how fast Gustav moves inland and his effect on Hanna wanes we can't really see what will happen no matter what the models try to indicate. It's still a crap shoot in ways and you go with the best models that brought you so far.
Ike however is a real problem as by the time he gets past shear he is stuck in a groove West towards Florida and Cuba under a very strong high.
So... I think until things clear up over the next 24 hours or 36 too much reliance on models with Hanna should be avoided.
Except that the whole of the Eastern Coastline is in her 5 day...
They must be living on Tagamet at the this week..
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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You can se it also on visible: The center of Hanna is totally exposed. The convection fires only in the SE quadrant.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
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Posts: 181
Loc:
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Hanna is moving somewhat slow and erratic just as forecast a few days ago, and its overall trend has been to get better organized and strengthen, although it is the nature of these features to sometimes strengthen and accelerate quite rapidly. It will sure keep everyone on the edge of their chairs the next few days as it lurks in the Bahamas and then starts moving toward the Florida coast on Wed. Yet, nothing consistent in the model guidance suggests that Hanna will strike FL. Instead, reliable long range models like the (and others) have been consistent in suggesting that Hanna will continue tracking very close to 's current forecast. These are the kind of storms that make everyone along the FL east coast very nervous, but it's nothing new for those who have been around awhile.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
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I wouldn't be suprised if Hanna made landfall on Haiti the way she has been acting, and I don't anticipate strengthening anytime soon for even if she does start moving NW again she'll be tracking back over the waters that she's been over, so she'll be trying to draw off of upwelled cooler waters. I also wonder if Ike is traveling over this area how it may affect him when he gets to Hanna's previous area. Heck, we may even have a collision between these two storms if Hanna's stays parked there long enough.
Speaking of Ike, he's looking pretty good, but he needs more convection torwards the center than what he has to really get going.
Josephine is looking good, and might prolly start strengthening soon methinks.
And if that wave at 15N 10W comes off the African coastline looking like it is now, we'll probably have an instant classification of Tropical Storm Kyle.
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