Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The remnant low of former TD Josephine was located near 17N 42.5W at 07/16Z moving slowly westward at 7 knots with winds of 25mph gusting to 35mph and a pressure of 1007MB. With southerly shear, most of the convective bursts have been north of the low center. Windshear expected to diminish south of 20N and with SSTs of 29-30C, some gradual redevelopment is possible over the next few days. With a strong ridge of high pressure to the north, a west to west northwesterly movement is anticipated along with a slow increase in forward speed. It is worth noting that the tropical model suite does bring Josephine back up to 60 knots near 21N 58W in five days.
A tropical wave is almost stationary southwest of Grenada near 12N 62W at 07/16Z. The wave is gradually developing convection and at 16Z the wind at Grenada was west southwest at 7 knots and the pressure was 1012MB. Just something else to keep an eye on. The next name on the list is Kyle.
A weak tropical low is located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 21N 96.5W at 07/16Z. The system is moving to the west and will soon be inland over Mexico.
ED
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Hard to write off Josephine, even the says to monitor her..
"SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS CURRENTLY
POORLY ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION."
First things first with Ike but reminds me of Hanna how she hasn't totally died off
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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The remnant low level circulation of the system that was formerly Josephine is still evident near 19N 51W at 09/03Z. Agressive westerly shear suggests that redevelopment is not likely.
The tropical wave that was west of Grenada 36 hours ago has scooted northwestward within a brisk southeasterly flow and is now near 16.5N 67.5W at 09/03Z. This system continues to fire convection - mostly to the east of the center. Still worth keeping a casual eye on this one, however upper level outflow from Ike might prohibit any additional development.
ED
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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CMC may not be the most reliable model but I notice that it wants to spin up a couple of other systems over the next week. Models sometimes are able to pick up on areas of interest and some times they over do it. However I remember a couple weeks when Gustav first formed that the long range projections of the showed several more possible spin ups...well we know what happened. Anything to what it is showing for next week?
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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has anyone checked out the clusters of showers 620 miles WSW of freetown, africa? they have gotten a tad bit larger from when i was monitoring them in the past couple of days.
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weenus
Unregistered
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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im noticing 2 areas of interest. one 600 miles west of freetown africa, and a new area of interest north of the leeward islands. has anyone checked these out yet? the area of disturbance north of the leeward islands can be a possible weathermaker for florida. and by looking at the conditions i wouldnt be surprised to see this spin into some sort of tropical system. anyone have any thoughts/input?
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craigm
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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The area by the leewards is the remnants of josephine coming back to life. Some shear in front of her (it) then moving into SE bahamas. Ridging is incredibly strong. I'm thinking any potential Florida hits will be late in the season when the the ridge finally gives way to long wave pattern for fall.
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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i guess were not the only ones who think the rest of josephine will come back
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL912008mlts.gif?1036517441
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ricky
Registered User
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Loc: Palm City, FL
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If I am not mistaken the Navy site has this as an invest again.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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Navy site now has 91L invest up. Josephine may be returning, her weakened state, allowed her to move westward, instead of turning out to sea and going away completely.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Posts: 143
Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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the should pick this up at the 8pm update if invest is up. be curious to see how this turns out. right now, it has preety much everything it needs to spin up in a system. and ike has created a wall in the wind currents so if this does track west it wont have much of anywhere to go other then west then northwest then north, etc. example of wall is here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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We already have a Josephine lounge. Please post comments on her there. Not sure if they will keep 91L as Josephine though.!
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