berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I see no evidence of a westward component to movement at this time. Upper low to the systems ENE and deep longwave trough to its NW and evolving cyclogenesis (extratropical low) off the Mid Atlantic and upper high south of TX and northerly winds aloft imply either a stationary movement or a slow trek north until an upper ridge becomes established east of the track and trough to the west; like Hanna. It's a mess upstairs right now with so many players involved.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Closest I can find other than PR is Cuba: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../gpdMaxw01a.gif
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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It's not unusual for developing tropical systems to have multiple centers or vortices at the surface and develop near and under deep convection. As for SC, the answer is no. This low will be from the word go. There has been some discussion that a few days down the road it may develop sub-tropical or hybrid characteristics, but it is not forecasted to remain over water and over water enough time. It takes several days for lows to acquire tropical characteristics; why? lows are cold core and deepen via baroclinic processes; differences in temperatures in air masses. Tropical lows are warm core and deepen is a pretty simple deal here, the ocean temperature. lows require upper air support to sustain them. Initially tropical systems begin shallow; they work their way from bottom up. Now if a low gets stranded and stays out over water for awhile, it can lose it's cold core and become warm, then you're in business.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Germany
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Yes, the mess is slowly pulled to the north. I still believe, that we can see some slow consolidation of the current broad mess on the northward track north of Hispaniola and the developement of TS Kyle. But I have my strong doubts, that we see hurricane Kyle, as the hurricane modells still show. continues to show no developement at all.
We`ll see, what will arrive in about 4 days at or near to the northern atlantic US coast.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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Part of Ral NWC forecast discussion:
MEANWHILE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GAIN SOME
SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEPICTS A WARM CORE AT 850MB BY
THIS EVENING INTO THU. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS ALSO
STRENGTHENED WITH 850MB WINDS OF 60-70KTS PROJECTED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN BY DAYBREAK THU WITH 50-55KTS AT 925MB. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL NC FOR THURSDAY
MORNING.
IR sat. loop this morning almost has the look of something sub-tropical, although I doubt any warm core has started to develop. Either way interesting discussion and it would appear that here in Eastern NC will see just as much wind and rain if not more than we saw with Hannah.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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