craigm
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Palm City, Florida
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I pulled this excerpt out of the discussion from NWS San Juan that I posted earlier on the recent news board as it could directly impact the track of 94L
"FOR TUE-WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING AS HEIGHTS RISE AS MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROP ATLC BUILDS WESTWARD. HOWEVER...CAP DOES NOT LOOK STRONG
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT DO EXPECT A SIG DROP
IN CONVECTIVE CVRG."
The forward speed of 94 if coincides with the advance of the ridge to the west should keep it moving W to WNW.
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Evan Johnson
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well as of now, conditions are very favorable for a development. most likely by the end of the day or tonight. its hit some warmer waters due to the fact it keeps heading in that westardly motion. it looks preety good right now, the center of the storm looks to be flaring up nicely and holding together quite well. these models confuse me however. im not paying attention to them right now, they are all split down the middle and indecisive. ill wait for the to bump it up. then some of the model runs might be a bit more stable and come into more agreement.
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gatorman
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question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:
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LSU FAN
Unregistered
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Quote:
question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:
There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future. 
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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That area east of the Isthmus of Panama will probably cross over into the E Pacific. IF it follows the trrack of the last few systems.
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Hurikid
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Loc: Barbados
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I can now see the circulation clearly on the IR(Rainbow) Loop....seems to have gone back to a more westward heading again..
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hogrunr
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Loc: Spring, TX
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Quote:
Quote:
question, there seems to be a "blob" under cuba, i know these things blow up and then dissapate very quickly, but this seems to be holding on pretty well? just wondering if this could be something just starting, seems to be moving due north? thanks for your input. watching 94L looks impressive, somewhat hopeful it might get in the gulf, def moving into warmer water.... :?:
There have been no models that have predicted or hinted that this system will go into the GOM, as a matter of fact, the models are predicting the system to make a wnw turn in the near future.
But we have to be careful watching any of the models at this point, they track the systems possible movement based (more accurately anyway) on the higher level winds being the steering currents. Right now it is only being steered by lower level winds since it is so disorganized. It would not surprise me at all if this made it into the GOM area since it is still moving due west.
One of the last, good, visible satellite images of the day (arrow marks COC):
Edited by hogrunr (Sun Aug 30 2009 05:46 PM)
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Evan Johnson
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94l looks really impressive, those warm waters agree with it well. looks organized, theres a cos, nice convection. i would have to say today might be the day it gets bumped to a TD, maybe more.
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weathernet
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94L certainly looks formidable and sizable, however still have not seen any surface observations indicating falling pressures, especially closest to the . Based on this, I do not believe that will upgrade 94L to a depression any earlier than 5:00pm today. Thereafter, and assuming that the overall convection continues, than perhaps this evening or tomorrow.
After looking at every different satellite resolution, I just can't seem to make out any specific point of higher top ( convective ) turning. Perhaps more interestingly, and in every effort to further hasten my current eye strain...., observation of both the visable and RGB resolutions are starting to make me think that a low level center may have been well seperated over the past couple days, and thus this feature several degrees to the west and slightly south ( which too appears to be convecting a little ), may be competing and/or cutting off inflow to a newly forming LLC under the main . In most small areas of disturbed weather, any well established low level swirl if sheared apart, would simply move on, and eventually "spin out". Perhaps given the larger and more protective envelope of this current system, such a lower level center might still realign with a newly forming low/mid level. This, or that we may be simply dealing with such a broad low level center, that only now that there has been any significant consistancy of convection, that perhaps this system might finally work its way down to the surface.
For the potential rationale described above, and appearant lack of obvious low level inflow and falling pressures, this is why I would tend to think may hold off upgrading 94L to a depression. Given the upper level southerly shear in place, its just hard to guess whether we'll be looking at forming bands in 12 hours, or a total collapse of all convection.
I do believe that if and when we do start seeing falling pressures, and what would appear to be a consolodated surface center ( perhaps late this eve. or tomorrow? ), that we certainly could see a rapid upgrade, perhaps straight to TS. Then, model data will become particularly interesting.
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