vpbob21
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While tropical cyclone activity is pretty much nil in the Atlantic basin, the western Pacific is really percolating with two active systems currently, and maybe more on the way.
Tropical Storm Ketsana is currently moving WNW across the South China Sea after causing massive destruction (as well as many fatalities) in the northern Philippines. Most of the damage was caused by flooding and mudslides, as Ketsana was only a weak tropical storm as it crossed the archipelago. Manila was especially hard hit, receiving more rainfall in 12 hours as is normal for the entire month of September. Easterly shear has lessened over Ketsana and is allowing thunderstorms to consolidate near the center, and the storm has intensified to just below typhoon strength. The storm is expected to be a 75 kt. (85 mph) typhoon as it crosses the coast of Vietnam in about 48 hours, but this could be a conservative guess. Again, heavy rains will probably be the biggest danger, as several strong spiral bands have already crossed the coast into Vietnam.
Well east of that lies T.D. #18, about 675 miles ESE of Guam. This system is fighting easterly shear which has exposed the LLCC, but is expected to encounter better conditions and slowly intensify as it moves WNW. It is expected to pass very close to Guam as a mid-range tropical storm in about 2 days. The subtropical ridge is expected to hold and build westward. So this system could be a major threat to areas farther west in time.
On top of that there is a very healthy looking invest (99W) south of the Norther Marianas at about 10/145, that could well be classified shortly. Also another invest (90W) to the east of Kosrae is showing signs of organization as well.
All in all it figues to be a very active week or two for areas around the Western Pacific basin. Stay tuned.
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vpbob21
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Wow, there is a lot to talk about out in the Western Pacific. I really don't know where to start.
I'd like to be able to post some of the fancy maps and satellite pics the CoconutCandy has on his posts, but that's beyond my computer abilities. But I will post the great link he has on his thread that shows the 3 storms lined up across the Western Pacific.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
I guess I'll start with a wrap-up on former Typhoon Ketsana. Ketsana is gone (pretty much) but will not be soon forgotten in the areas that were devastated by it. It made its final landfall in Vietnam yesterday with 90 kt. (105 mph) winds. The Philippines and Vietnam are still reeling from the effects, and reports of major flooding are coming in from Laos and Cambodia as well.
Then we have our three systems across the Pacific, with Guam pretty much smack in the middle of them. The system nearby to Guam, Tropical Storm #18 is kind of the black sheep of the family in that it's being sqeezed by the systems on either side of it and having its infow and outflow disrupted by them. Looking at the Guam radar you can still see what's left of the COC passing between Guam and Rota and spinning off to the NW. Various model solutions have the system weakening and being sheared apart, being absorbed into the system to the west or a combination of both.
Then we have Typhoon Parma (just upgraded on the 0300z advisory). It is forming a nice eye and appears well on its way to becoming a very dangerous storm. Currently, it is not much of a threat to land, at least in the short term.
Last but not least is Tropical Storm Melor, which formed out of old Invest 90W out to the east of Pohnpei, and is gathering strength about 660 miles ESE of Saipan. It is developing a nice outflow channel and SST's are very warm, so intensification into a typhoon seems likely within 3 days, if not sooner.
So where are these systems going? I would have to think with 3 systems so close together and the complex interactions that are likely to occur, the uncertainty factor is probably going to be off the charts. But right now the official forecast calls for Parma (the westernmost of the 3 storms) to move northwestward to a position a couple hundred miles southeast of Taiwan in 5 days, while deepening to a 110 kt. storm. At some point it is progged to absorb T.S. #18, so erratic movement is possible. As for Melor, it is currently moving NW but is expected to turn to the west as ridging builds to the north. It is expected to pass between Guam and Saipan in about 4 days, and could well be a typhoon when it gets there. After that, it's anybody's guess.
So it could be a bumpy ride for some areas out in the WestPac. Hopefully, the systems will avoid land areas and allow the cleanup process to proceed in areas that have been hard hit.
UPDATE - Parma is now a supertyphoon with 130 kt. (150 mph) winds. Unfortunately the track is looking much closer to the Philippines, and the official forecast has it near the northeast coast of Luzon in about 3 days. Undoubtedly this is going to be another big soaker for the Philippines. It may intensify further to 140 kts. as it aproaches. The news is a little better on Typhoon Melor (recently upgraded) - it is now expected to pass north of Saipan, putting them in a slightly less dangerous quadrant. Saipan still needs to watch this one closely. The discussions hints at possible interaction between the 2 systems beyond 96 hours.
Edited by vpbob21 (Thu Oct 01 2009 12:37 AM)
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CoconutCandy
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NOTE: This was Originally Posted to a NEW Thread ...
Very Active WestPac - Part Two - A 'Trio of Cyclones'
... but thought it Best to Post it Here as a REPLY ...
( Originally posted Tue Sep 29 2009 04:04 AM )
Also, Thanks to vpbob for posting to 'Other Storms'
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Yes Indeed. The Western Pacific continues to be VERY active, with a trio of developing tropical cyclones in the vicinity of the Mariana Islands.
A moderately active El Nino year continues in evidence with a VERY Warm Western Pacific Basin, which extends right across the International Dateline and well into the Central Pacific and beyond. Which of course translates into *plenty* of oceanic heat content for any cyclones that do develop.
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(Removed from this post is a discussion about the *STRENGTHENING* El Nino Event, which is now expected to persist well into the Northern Hemisphere Winter Season '09-'10.
El Nino Strengthens, Expected Well Into 2010
Please see my NEW post, (link above) for further discussions and a very illustrative animated graphic of SST's for the Eastern, Central and Western Pacific Storm Basins, clearly showing El Nino continuing to expand and grow over the past few months.)
=============================
So we have, in dramatic evidence, a *huge* oceanic area with very high heat content, and when upper atmospheric conditions are conducive (omni-directionaly diffluent) you can usually expect cyclogenesis to occur. (Unlike the Atlantic basin this year, with it's prevalent strong uni-directional shear, effectively ripping apart many storms from developing.)
Indeed, such is the case today with a trio(!) of tropical cyclones developing near the Mariana Islands, all of which are expected to become named storms.
As vpbob21 made note of a day or so ago ...
Quote:
Quote from vpbob21 ...
While tropical cyclone activity is pretty much nil in the Atlantic basin, the western Pacific is really percolating with two active systems currently, and maybe more on the way.
... T.D. #18, about 675 miles ESE of Guam. This system is fighting easterly shear which has exposed the LLCC, but is expected to encounter better conditions and slowly intensify as it moves WNW. It is expected to pass very close to Guam as a mid-range tropical storm in about 2 days. The subtropical ridge is expected to hold and build westward. So this system could be a major threat to areas farther west in time.
On top of that there is a very healthy looking invest (99W) south of the Northern Marianas at about 10/145, that could well be classified shortly. Also another invest (90W) to the east of Kosrae is showing signs of organization as well.
All in all it figures to be a very active week or two for areas around the Western Pacific basin. Stay tuned.
As always, additional info on these cyclones can be found on the ...
Navy Research Lab (NRL) Tropical Cyclone Homepage
... and a terrific Color-Enhanced IR Animated Loop displaying the latest activity is at ...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
(I like to click 'ROCK' for a back-and-forth motion and speed it up slightly. You can also click the 'ZOOM' button to zoom in repeatedly and while zoomed in you can click-and-drag to pan around.)
And in the following graphic, you can see the "Dueling Depressions", namely TD 18W and TD 20W as they both move WNW towards the Mariana Islands.
It's interesting to note that a day or so ago, TD 18W (just then classified) looked to be very healthy and robust, while some distance to the ESE was also a healthy looking disturbance, though still Invest 99W, not yet a depression. Meanwhile, the system that was to become TS 'Parma' was just a small, crescent-shaped area of convection due south of Guam, as vpbob noted above, which has become the first named storm of the three.
However, in the day or so since then, TD 18W has apparently weakened, while Invest 99W (recently upgraded to TS 'Melor') appeared to 'steal away the thunder' from 18W and has steadily organized, expanded in size and quickly strengthened to become a tropical storm. Latest Doppler Radar out of Guam shows 18W to be very weak and looking more and more disorganized by the hour. It just goes to show that things can change in a hurry in the tropics from one day to the next!
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Tropical Storm PARMA
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From a recent microwave satellite overpass of tropical storm 'Parma', you can already see a nascent eye-like ring of intense convection occuring in the inner core convection, that appears to be not quite aligned yet with the developing low-level circulation, as shown by light blue concentric circles.
In other words, (at least to my partially trained eyes!) I don't believe the storm has aligned itself vertically quite yet, or what is sometimes called 'the vertically aligned column'.
The LLCC seems to be lagging a short distance to the SE, perhaps due to a bit of shear coming from that direction, which would tend to 'lean' the upper portion of the storm in the direction the shear is blowing towards. But all that can, of course, change in a hurry as this tropical storm is expected to develop into a typhoon within a few days.
Edited by CoconutCandy (Thu Oct 01 2009 04:30 AM)
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CoconutCandy
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Just what the Philippines *don't* need right now. Yet another typhoon threatening the already battered island !!
After Tropical Storm Ketsana (a weak 35 Kt. storm!) caused massive flooding a week or so ago in Manila (the worse flooding there in 46 years, Yikes!) and throughout Luzon, the Northern-most Island of the Philippines, we now have the spectre of Major Typhoon 'Parma' approaching Luzon from the SE.
You will notice the forecast track taking the center of 'Parma' directly over the NE tip of Luzon, but as the effects of tropical cyclones are far reaching, the entire island is sure to suffer torrential rains and massive mud and landslides from already saturated terrain. If this fact wasn't enough in itself, it appears that 'Parma' will slow in it's forward motion and turn due west as it passes north of Luzon, likely prolonging the torrential rains over the island and severely exacerbating the flooding already occuring.
Link to Full Map, including Forecast Wind Speeds and CPA Info
NRL Tropical Cyclone Homepage for Typhoons Parma, Melor and more
After attaining SuperTyphoon status for a while yesterday (it went from a 40 Kt. tropical storm in my previous post to a supertyphoon in less than 24 hours(!), a testiment to the very high oceanic heat content), the inner core convection apparently had an altercation with several detrimental environmental factors. From the 's latest prognostic reasoning ...
Quote:
TYPHOON PARMA HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TO A TYPHOON. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES IN THE MID LEVELS HAS CAUSED EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 T0 30 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THESE 2 FACTORS CAUSED A LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. (HOWEVER) RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER.
As mentioned, the Philippines are still very much reeling from TS Ketsana last week, resulting in at least 277 fatalities at last count, leaving *tens of thousands* homeless(!) and destroying more than $100 million dollars in crops, infrastructure and property.
And now they're having to brace themselves for yet another, even stronger, typhoon; the 2nd in as many weeks!
Philippines braces for second stronger typhoon
Philippines raises alert for new super typhoon
Storm-ravaged Philippines braced for 'super typhoon' Parma
Quote:
PARMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON, MAKING LANDFALL (over the NE tip of Luzon) THEN CROSSING INTO THE LUZON STRAIT. THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH.
AFTER 72 HOURS, TYPHOON PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH NORTHERN LUZON'S TOPOGRAPHY. ONCE IT CROSSES INTO LUZON STRAIT, IT WILL REMAIN AT STRONG TYPHOON INTENSITY. DURING THIS PERIOD, TYPHOON PARMA WILL SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION AS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) COMMENCES.
AFTER 72 THE TRACK SPEEDS REMAIN SLOW ... THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR TYPHOON PARMA REMAINS COMPLICATED BY POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH TYPHOON MELOR TO THE EAST AND INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH.
It seems nearly certain that 'Parma' will adversely affect an Island already caught up in a huge calamity from the last storm, and will assuredly besiege the already storm-weary Philippine people still struggling with flooding, homelessness and massive crop losses. My heart goes out to the very friendly and beautiful Filippinos. They've had more than enough cyclones already this year!
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vpbob21
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Typhoon Parma is very near the northeast coast of Luzon. After a weakening trend for the last 36 hours, possible due to some shear and some interaction with some of the higher terrain of the islands, Parma seems to be getting a little better organized as it approaches the coast. The outflow seems to be improving and the cloud tops are cooling, and the T-numbers are coming up. It likely will make landfall in the next few hours over Cagayan province and spend just a few hours over land before emerging over the Luzon strait. Earlier forecasts had the storm coming in farther south and spending much more time over land and causing considerable weakening, perhaps to tropical storm strength. With the more northward track, it will likely not weaken a whole lot as it clips the coast and will likely emerge still a typhoon. In any event, steering currents are collapsing and Parma is expected to nearly stall just north of Luzon.
At that point there are a number of possibilities. The discussion from the gave 3 possible scenarios for Parma:
1) - Parma stalls for a while, then heads out to the northeast as ridging builds to its east in the wake of Typhoon Melor.
2) - Parma stalls for a while, then ridging building east from China steers the storm to the west.
3) - Parma stalls for a while, then interaction from Typhoon Melor approacing from the east causes an east or southeast movement, then eventually northeast.
Up until this morning the had favored scenario #2. Then at the 2100z advisory they switched to scenario #1. As I'm typing this, the 0300z advisory is in and they have switched again to scenario #3, turning the storm sharply east after 48 hours. The discussion cites much improved model consistency on this idea. We will see how it turns out.
Bottom line though is more flooding rains for the Philippines. The one good thing is that the central part of Luzon that got hammered by Ketsana won't get the worst of it. The worst will be in northeast Luzon especially Cagayan province, where the terrain is rugged and there will likely be major flooding and mudslides. Hopefully Parma will move through quickly enough and get far enough clear of the island to keep the flooding somewhat in check.
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vpbob21
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It is hard to believe that over 2 weeks since invest 99W was classified as T.D. #19, and later as Tropical Storm Parma, that system is still out there. Going back about 9 or 10 days, Parma crossed Luzon heading NW, then interacted with Typhoon Melor passing to its east and drifted SE back across the island. Then the ridge built back in to the north and Parma made a third crossing of the island heading WNW. Of course this has produced almost non-stop heavy rain over the northern part of Luzon, and when all is said and done, Parma may end up being a deadlier storm than Ketsana. The scenes of entire villages being buried by landslides are truly heartbreaking.
It would be nice if the Philippines would get some fine weather to be able to clean up from these back-to-back disasters, but another vigorous tropical wave with an invest tag (93W) is fast closing in on the islands. Hopefully it will pass quickly by and not add to the problems.
Parma is still not through doing its dirty work. It has crossed over Hainan island and has moved back over the Gulf of Tonkin, heading for a final landfall in Vietnam in about 24 hours. Even with only 35 kt winds, it will certainly cause more flooding and mudslides as it moves inland.
Parma is also steadily climbing the list of longest-lasting Western Pacific cyclones. The 0300z warning was #62 issued for Parma. I did a little research and went back through the last 50 years of West Pac activity and I believe that Parma is now in 8th place as far as longevity (over the last 50 years). Here is my list (and I'm sure someone will correct me if I have missed one):
#1 - (1979) 79 warnings
#2 - Opal (1969) 69
#3 - Kujira (2003), Verne (1994), Tess (1972) 66
#6 - Gay (1992), Bess (1963) 63
#8 - Parma (2009) 62
#9 - Nari (2001), Nat (1991) 61
I didn't count storms that formed in the Central Pacific and moved into the Western Pacific - that's why Ioke (2006 - 67 warnings) isn't on the list. It looks like Parma has a fair chance of reaching at least third place by the time it winds down.
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CoconutCandy
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Yes, the final advisory has *finally* been issued for TC Parma.
There were, in all, 68 advisories issued, which would place it at #3 in the list you presented above, and 1 more than even Hurricane/Typhoon I'oke in 2006, which had a total of 67 advisories issued.
The graphic of Parma as it meandered near and over the island of Luzon in the Philippines is very convoluted and lengthy, timewise, thus accounting for many of the advisories that were required.
(Graphic of Parma as it tracked near and through the Philippines forthcoming.)
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