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News Talkback >> 2009 Storm Forum
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Concern - Tropical Storm Ida
      #87084 - Wed Nov 04 2009 08:23 PM

Tropical Storm Ida off the southeast coast of Nicaragua near 12.4N 83W at 05/00Z moving very slowly to the northwest. Maximum winds are approaching hurricane strength with a Hurricane Watch in place along the east coast of Nicaragua.

I'd anticipate movement more to the north northwest across eastern Nicaragua and Honduras with a good chance that the system will survive its slow crossing over land as it exits off the northeast coast of Honduras near 85W. Movement likely to become more northerly as the system approaches the Yucatan Channel.

Strong high pressure building over the Gulf would tend to move the system more to the west - except a strong west southwest upper level flow above 23N would tend to shove it eastward. The net result could be that the storm would move north into the southeast Gulf of Mexico and stall - perhaps even getting nudged southward again, and eventually weaken. The GFS hints at this solution - and it might be a good one.
ED

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