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News Talkback >> 2009 Storm Forum
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cebas
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2010 Forecast
      #87354 - Tue Dec 08 2009 08:40 AM

Tomorrow, Colorado State University will make its first 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions.
My predictions are...
12 Named Storms
5 Hurricane
3 Major Hurricanes

The reason why so low because there is a possibility that very weak El Nino conditions may linger over the summer(Jun.July/Aug), but weaken to neutral conditions by fall(Sept/Oct/Nov)

(Post moved to the correct Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Dec 08 2009 09:24 PM)

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2010 Forecast [Re: cebas]
      #87355 - Tue Dec 08 2009 09:32 PM

TSR has issued its initial outlook for the 2010 season - the numbers are 14/7/3.
CSU has issued its initial outlook for the 2010 season - the average numbers are 14/7/4.
If El Nino subsides, my initial thoughts would suggest 12/6/3. In the past, after a strong El Nino, the range has been from 11/4/2 (1974) to 14/10/3 (1998). Initial analog years (in order of significance) are 1978, 1988, 1966 and 1998.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Dec 09 2009 06:41 PM)

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 2010 Forecast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87356 - Thu Dec 10 2009 01:08 PM

Dr. Gray's early prediction is now available. He and his colleagues are expecting a much busier season than 2009. The PDF is here .

--------------------
Michael

PWS

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