MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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1:50PM EDT 1 June 2010 Update
The area in the western Caribbean has been designated Invest 91L, but still has a very low chance of development <10%.
More detailed discussion on this system here
It is likely to wander a bit and eventually get sheared apart, move east or northeast, and possibly bring unorganized moisture toward Florida. There are no reliable model runs for this system as of yet.
One area that may be worth watching later is in the Southwestern Caribbean, north of Panama.
Original Update - Midnight June 1st, 2010
Once again, we have reached June 1st, and it is unfortunately the start of yet another Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The patterns, water temperatures, and lack of el Nino this year will likely increase the chances of an active year.
NOAA Climate Predictions Center and the meteorologists at Colorado State University say it likely will be a very active year.
Last year they suggested a below average to average year, and that panned out. Much of last year was spotted by weak systems that could never get it together, along with no storms in June or July.
This year is starting out a bit more active, despite looking like nothing will form of it, the remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha are in the western Caribbean. This gives us something to watch, and may cause some rain, but shear will likely prevent it from developing. There is less than a 10% chance of something happening here. Don't expect anything from this.
The convection has fallen off greatly, and while shear is generally decreasing over time in the area, it is still quite high, especially to the north of the system. So other than this, which likely will not develop, it seems 2010 may start off relatively slow.
Early season is no indicator of the peak (Which starts in Mid-August and runs through mid October). It appears more likely than usual that there may be July systems, but June still has a relatively low chance for development.
In June you normally look in the western Caribbean or parts of the Gulf for development.
For June we can look at past memorable hurricanes:
1957 saw a June storm that became a Category 4 hurricane, and was retired. Hurricane Audrey formed on June 25th, 1957 in the Bay of Campeche.
Audrey took advantage of unusually low shear and warm Gulf waters and moved mostly north and made landfall in Western Lousiana (15 miles east of where made landfall in 2005). It was (and still is) the strongest hurricane to hit the US in June.
1966 saw Hurricane Alma, which was named in the Western Caribbean on June 6th, 1966. Alma became a hurricane just before crossing the Isle of Youth, and then crossed over Cuba exiting near Havana on June 8th.
Alma got to Category 3 status west of Florida, and caused a 10 foot storm surge along the west coast, but weakened to Category 1 before making landfall on June 9th south of Tallahassee. It caused quite a few deaths in Cuba and in Central America.
Hurricane Agnes hit in June 19, 1972 east of Panama City Beach (around Mexico Beach), as a category 1 hurricane. But amazingly after weakening on land, reformed into a tropical storm off the coast of North Carolina and looped back into Pennsylvania, causing torrential flooding rains.
Worthy of note, although very rare, these storms can occur. And they usually form in the Gulf or Western Caribbean.
Here's a plot of all storms from 1851-2004, see if your area is in it:
If you are along the coast in these areas, or in Florida at all, creating a hurricane plan and getting some early supplies is always a good idea this time of year. The Great Hurricane Blowout has a lot of good preparation information this year.
Once again, thanks for visiting the site. We hope to introduce a few new things as time goes on.
The names for this year are: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, Walter.
This year has some particularities. Haiti is still recovering from the large earthquake last year, and is very susceptible to even weak tropical storms. The Deepwater Horizon drilling platform accident is still leaking oil into the Gulf of Mexico. How any hurricane and that reacts is unknown, best case it will disperse it and clean things up, worst case it could spread the spill inland with surge. Lack of Florida Hurricanes... there has not been a full fledged hurricane hit in Florida since in 2005. There have been several Tropical Storm hits (Including Fay that caused quite a bit of Flooding in 2008), but nothing strong. Empty homes as well as plenty of people inexperienced with hurricanes are now in Florida and may not know how to prepare. Be helpful to your neighbors in hurricanes, especially if they are new to hurricane prone locations.
Be hurricane prepared! And always, always, take the word of the National Hurricane Center over anything you read on the Internet, here or otherwise.
Since today is the first day of hurricane season. Mark Sudduth over at Hurricanetrack.com will be opening up the season with a video/audio program, and as for many years as we've been around, our friend Jim Williams at Hurricane City will be doing an 8PM broadcast tonight for the season kickoff.
There are plenty of hurricane related websites that also may be doing some things for the start of the season, check our links page for more! And if you know of one that isn't there, let us know!
See Ed Dunham's blog below for even more commentary about the start of the season.
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Adam S
Unregistered
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Is there any chance that the disburance in the Western Carribean develops?
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The area in the western Caribbean has been designated Invest 91L, but still has a very low chance of development <10%.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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NHC has put up their yellow circle around it with a "10%" chance in the next 48 hours. My own personal opinion is closer to one in three (roughly 30% chance) that in the next 48 hours 91L becomes a TD or storm. We have a thread going for 91L over here if you want to discuss 91L in greater detail.
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Interesting area of storm in SW GOM coming north.... something to watch crossing the GOM... movement just to the east of north... Upper level winds appear favorable.... In this sat view of GOM . The Gulf appears its baking now looking at SST's... Loop of SST's in GOM with Loop current.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Plant City, Florida
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I'm sure the Gulf is baking as we here in central Fla are baking. Strong southwest flow bringing in moisture by the ton makes it almost too humid to bear outside (heat indexes in the low 100s). PLUS we have had a LOT of rain this week. The lake is about a foot higher than it usually is this time of year. Not a good setup for tropical weather. Not sure what that is in the sw GOM, but it needs to get a bit more to it before I worry about it. Anyone see any circulation with it??
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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In the Bahamas there looks like there may be a surface low trying to form.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html
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