weatherguy08
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 60
Loc: Miami, Fla.
|
|
I think what we have here is an elongated trough that's not quite closed off yet, but give it 24 hours tops, assuming is doesn't run into land, and I think we'll have a tropical depression.
--------------------
Jason
http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com
Andrew '92 - Lili '02 - Katrina '05 - Rita '05 - Humberto '07 - Gustav '08 - Ike '08 - Isaac '12 - Sandy '12
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Unless recon can close it off I agree ... problem is elongated troughs have a messy way of moving ..sort of push me pull me and are hard to predict trackwise
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
|
|
recon made there first pass.. and it appears there is two centers? there on the ene side now of 93L... the dominant one is the northern one it appears. data also shows tropical storm force winds at the surface well to the ene of the coc.
--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Jun 25 2010 04:03 PM)
|
CLWeather
Unregistered
|
|
These must be the two centers that some of the models have been picking up.
What a strange system(s).
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
They are quite a bit SE of where the first wind shift occurred and are now reporting the lowest pressure so far (1005.1mb). It will be interesting to see what the pressure is close to the first shift...still no W winds though.
Update: They have found a pressure of 1004.3 and a WNW wind. I think they about to close off a low
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Jun 25 2010 04:53 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
They are quite a bit SE of where the first wind shift occurred and are now reporting the lowest pressure so far (1005.1mb). It will be interesting to see what the pressure is close to the first shift...still no W winds though
Latest info:
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 294° at 5 knots (From the WNW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Not a very strong wind, but it is from the west,sort of.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
So Far no consistent west winds. I don't think the low can be considered closed off at the surface. Mind you, I think it's only a matter of time before it does, and they may find more west winds in there before they leave. but for now, I'd consider it a very very sharp wave.
Edit -
And just as I say this, they find a group of west winds of Tropical Storm force. However those winds still appear to be away from the center, so it's not a terribly organized at this point. But I think it's good enough to call and probably call as a Tropical Storm off the bat.
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Fri Jun 25 2010 05:14 PM)
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
It still looks like the lowest pressure was at the wind shift. The west winds they are finding now the pressure is 2mb higher
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
06/25/2010 09:25PM 3,473 invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren
Offical time and date for the first tropical system of the season. Now we'll see if it starts as a Depression or a Storm. The numbers support a storm, but wouldn't be shocked if they start with a depression, the low level center seemed to be a bit elongated and might need a bit more time to really get together.
Edit -
And according to the Navy site, it's a tropical depression 1005MB and 30Kt winds.
Now is probably a good time to remind everyone to play nice, to try to keep information insightful and relevant, and to avoid wild speculation. If you want to talk about hunches and all that fun stuff, FLHurricane has a Forecast Lounge where speculation is not only ok, but encouraged. 
May this season be safe for everyone.
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Fri Jun 25 2010 05:55 PM)
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Quote:
06/25/2010 09:25PM 3,473 invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren
Offical time and date for the first tropical system of the season. Now we'll see if it starts as a Depression or a Storm. The numbers support a storm, but wouldn't be shocked if they start with a depression, the low level center seemed to be a bit elongated and might need a bit more time to really get together.
NRL is indicating ONE... on their "all storms" page. The actual front page still shows 93L but has no image associated with it anymore. so the "ONE" could just be a placeholder, since there have been numerous reports of winds 35kts+ in the vicinity of "Alex-To-Be".
I read somewhere that the has issued a special advisory, but it's not on the website yet, at least, not for me (sometimes my ISP caches stuff though, so it doesn't show up right away unless I do some tricks which I haven't tried yet...).
Model runs at 8pm will be VERY interesting... and the overnight runs even moreso. So much for a nice boring weekend! 
Edit: Special Advisory is out on TD One.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jun 25 2010 06:01 PM)
|
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
|
|
Thanks Hugh, explains why I was wondering what was going on with ... all I could get was a track but no upgrade noticeable. No emails...
They certainly stayed out there long enough...
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
If you click on 01L it will take you to the Sat Loop...looks like they aren't naming it yet
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
You could be right, this may be a Tropical depression for all of 30 minutes, the latest Recon obs have pressure at 1002.9 and with the fairly large region of tropical storm force winds earlier, a good case for the system already being a tropical storm exists.
Either way, once we get the Vortex message, we should know more.
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Looks like they have closed off a center at 16 32'N and 83 36'W pressure down to 1002.9mb
--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
Edited by WeatherNut (Fri Jun 25 2010 06:03 PM)
|
JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 159
Loc: Lakeland, FL
|
|
now has it up as Tropical Depression 1. I guess this thread will be closed and replaced with a new one for the first TD of the Atlantic Season.
|
Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
|
|
Bloodstar: It would not be the first time a storm's intensity was upped that quickly. There was a hurricane in 2005 that was upgraded from a Cat 3 to a borderline Cat 4/5 in the matter of 30 minutes I think. The "Discussions" were funny - "what a difference an hour makes" one of them started off...
Track appears to take Alex into the west Gulf, toward Texas. This assumes that the trough DOESN'T shove it move toward the north/central Gulf, like some models are showing. It's too early to say for sure what it's going to do, of course, especially until after the next two model runs, and some consistency with them. Official forecast is a blend of the two divergent model groups. I hope the western model runs are more accurate, because even a weak Alex would be a nightmare with all the oil out there.
--------------------
Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Fri Jun 25 2010 06:06 PM)
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
