mwillis
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 68
Loc: Cape canaveral
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Ya, it looks like according this this sat. imagery that Alex may of just wrapped up on the western side of the Core.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html
Look at the last frame
Edited by mwillis (Tue Jun 29 2010 04:59 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Looks like Alex is behaving as predicted, and the majority of the movement is west, with a slde to the north. The speed is faster than originally predicted, and strengthening into a Cat II looks less likely. Probably minimal Cat I at land fall which looks likely on Wednesday
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doug
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stormtiger
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Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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Last night I thought we'd have hurricane Alex in the morning, but we didn't get it. We still don't have it. The is right on top of it, and has gotten the intensity right since Alex exited the Yucatan.
It seems to me though that Alex is tracking urther south than they had predicted, and is picking up speed and racing WNW at a nice clip.
It's looking better, but it still seems to have a lot of dry air mixed in with the individual spiral bands.
I suspect Alex will reach cane status tonite as predicted.
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allan
Weather Master
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Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Been observing more on the steering layers for the storm. It seems like the stronger Alex gets, the more north he can pull. Just for an example, look at this map Steering Layers for 940 MLB. or lower . If Alex was a category 4 or 5 with pressure of 940 MLB. it would steer to just about south of Galveston. The map shows a much weaker ridge. However, the weaker Alex is, the more west it goes Steering Layers for 990-970 MLB. . has Alex becoming a category 1 storm at landfall, which is reasonable because of the dry air that has been inhibiting it. However, I'm looking at a category 2 Hurricane at landfall, same thing happened with Dolly in 2008. Landfall either at or south of the Mexican border, which was my first forecast but after the models went north, and as the trough looked stronger, I veered it north, but I'm starting to see a WNW movement with Alex, of course recon will have the best information. My best guess is that Alex is a Category 1 storm with 75-80 mph by 11 p.m. since recon won't be at the center till after the 8 p.m. advisory which has no change in strength. If this doesn't belong here please let me know, it's been a long time since I used this site, grown more in my knowledge of weather over the years. 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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allan
Weather Master
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Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
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Recon is finding an astounding pressure of 973 MLB. (pressure of a category 2-3 storm). I would watch Alex closely tonight for the winds to slowly drive up. I also got this from the Running Best TRack
AL, 01, 2010063000, , BEST, 0, 230N, 944W, 65, 974, HU , 64, NEQ
It appears we have our first Hurricane of the season! 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I've been searching the recon and have seen no winds at the surface above 65kts...which seems very wrong with a pressure that low
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Alex appears to be slowing down again, and attempting another run at getting over the hurricane hump. Those in the Warning area in Texas shouldn't let their guard down.
Note: It WILL be upgraded at 11.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Alex is the first June Atlantic Hurricane since 1995 (Allison), which was also the first hurricane to ever be tracked on flhurricane.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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With a pressure that low...I dont see how they couldn't upgrade it. I've seen Cat2's with higher pressure
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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