WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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The 12Z models that have come out initialize 96L much farther south
than the 06Z run. I think they may have gone too far south
because the visible satellite shows what looks to be a circulation
east of Jamaica (as of 13:45); however, this could be a "fake" one
that spun off from the convection.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Dont know what your looking @ unless you ment west of Jamaica not east. That though is a midlevel vortex. If a LLC organizes..probably be further SW north of Honduras or off the Yucitan.
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doug
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I am sure the post before meant west.
I have not studied the models on 96L, but visual observation suggests that the steering off the Yucatan is more northerly than westerly. I think the bulk of this system will move Nw'ly in the near time. After a bit the flow seems to be NE'ly along the trough in the CGOM.
I don't know how long this pattern will persist, so it could all relax to a more westerly flow in a day or so.
Right now the 95L feature is bringing copious amounts of moisture over the peninsula out of the Caribbean. The forecast is for that to move out today or tomorrow and restore an easterly flow. That would explain the forecast for 96L to be headed for the WGOM again.
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doug
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Sorry about the confusion, I meant west. I agree with you guys
that it is not a LLC after all. It will likely form close to where the
models show (north of Honduras). I still think it has a pretty good
shot at developing, especially once in the Gulf of Mexico.
Also, the has a RECON flight planned for 96L tomorrow.
Edited by WesnWylie (Sun Jul 04 2010 11:14 AM)
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Storm Hunter
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just might be my eyes, but i think a second weaker low has formed off the Florida Phndl. about 125 miles SW of Panama City? 95L is hanging in there... and appears to me the westward movement has slowed and maybe taken on a drift or slow wobble... which i would think a turn the NW would be coming. The second low or small vortice is see is SW of Panama City. It has showers and storm to the east of the spin and one or two storms near its coc.
96L appears to right where the models are showing... altho a more NW direction would seem to be happening in the short term to me?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 04 2010 02:40 PM)
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cieldumort
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The low center associated with a stalled frontal boundary across the NE GOM tagged Invest 95L appears to have broken free of its frontal attachments this morning, and has been rapidly consolidating and becoming much more defined at the surface, and a small tropical cyclone could be forming this afternoon.
Currently, a well-defined surface circulation appears to be taking hold in the neighborhood of 27N 89W. Regional surface obs confirm that a small, well-defined LLC probably now exists, or very nearly so, and is underneath a pocket of persistent moderate convection, lower shear values and in less dry air, compared to the past several days.
Close-up visible floater loop also confirms the likely existence of a closed LLC in this general location.
What is not yet evident are significant pressure falls and/or increases in wind speed, but it is also possible that the obs are also not yet sampling the regions within the very center of the cyclone, where a small core of strong winds and pressure falls may be underway.
Intensity: Invest 95L remains in a less-than-ideal environment for intensification, and yet, it appears to have consolidated at the surface, broken free of its front, and for the moment, be nestled in a relative sweet spot. It remains possible that just a small shift out of this "sweet spot" would subject the fledgling cyclone to intense northerly shear and a lot more dry air.
Weakening is probably just as likely as further organization over the next 48 hours, or until the system moves inland, but it is indeed possible that a short-lived named storm comes out of this.
Impacts: Likely to be brief and very localized for a tropical cyclone, if it does indeed make the grade prior to coming inland. 95L is a small system, and tropical storm force winds, if any, would probably be restricted to a fairly small area. Convection is not particularly deep, either, given all of the dry air still in the region. As such, rainfall would mostly be light, save for the core of the system, where it could be heavy.
Movement into Texas could have locally greater impacts, as this state is already inundated from rains related to Alex all this week. At this time, most forecast tracks take 95L through far eastern Texas and/or western half of Louisiana. Might temporarily upset some vacation plans, especially along the beach. Oil/tar balls could further be thrown into sensitive marshes, and over some more beach
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WesnWylie
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If 95L was to organize further and possibly become a depression,
wouldn't it have a tendency to pull 96L further north, at least in the
short term? I think the 18Z model run is catching on to this by moving
the track of 96L further north toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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cieldumort
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Quote:
If 95L was to organize further and possibly become a depression,
wouldn't it have a tendency to pull 96L further north, at least in the
short term? I think the 18Z model run is catching on to this by moving
the track of 96L further north toward the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Invest 95L is a very small system, and as such, probably would not have the opportunity to directly influence the future track of the much larger 96L a whole lot, but it seems reasonable to me to expect some tugs in the near term. If the stalled front starts to pull out a bit more, and a little bit of higher pressure builds in place of 95L and/or the front, I would think there could even be some westward push on 96L next week.
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Rich B
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Satellite imagery, loops, and radar data from NO / BR radar seems to suggest that 95L, although being a very small system, is actually showing some signs of organisation. Might be worth watching a little more closely over the next few hours to see if this trend continues.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Hunter
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sat imagery is showing 95L is prolly a very small weak tropical storm now... with winds of 35mph... clearly a TD to me, and movement is north is last few images... 95L broke free of the front and showed to me a warm core IMHO.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_GULF/anim16vis.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Jul 04 2010 05:00 PM)
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cieldumort
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I estimate the MLC at roughly 27.5N 89.8W, as of this reply. Not as confident where the LLC is in relation to that, but I think it's very close. It is a little bewildering that area obs of surface pressures are not yet falling much at all in response to the improvements today, but then again, 95L is not a particularly deep cyclone with a tiny inner core, and most likely most of the action still remains aoa 925mb. Recon might be useful right now - 95L is probably just too small for the existing surface samples to give a clear picture.
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danielw
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You guys a right on the money. I noticed earlier this afternoon that the ring of convection/ clouds around 95L had become storm centered.
Skater pulled her arms in. Increasing the spin. Right?
That' s basic statement of what appeared in the last 24 hours. In the northern GOM.
96L is creeping it's way across the Western Caribbean with a cyclonically curved cloud band noted from the Yucatan Channel along the southern coast of Cuba and into the Central Caribbean. Definantly a system to watch due to it's proximity to the Gulf Coast.
2100Z thumbs from U S Navy.
95L
96L
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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95L continues to become organized, so I have a feeling the will
tag it as a depression this evening. I don't think it is a tropical storm just
yet. This is not good news for the people dealing with the oil spill.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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danielw
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Quote:
I estimate the MLC at roughly 27.5N 89.8W, as of this reply. Not as confident where the LLC is in relation to that, but I think it's very close. It is a little bewildering that area obs of surface pressures are not yet falling much at all in response to the improvements today, but then again, 95L is not a particularly deep cyclone with a tiny inner core, and most likely most of the action still remains aoa 925mb. Recon might be useful right now - 95L is probably just too small for the existing surface samples to give a clear picture.
Using your coordinates. I plugged them into a zoomable 248nm base reflectivity product from NWS Slidell,LA. Coordinates are Dead On right now.
Loop link below is beginning to indicate a northward drift and it appears that a convective band is trying to develop to the west of the center.
248nm Radar zoom on 95L
Storm Hunter has located a second LOW in trail of 95L.
Currently due south of Pensacola,FL. Radar loop centered on second Low.
Will the Fujiwara effect moves this second Low onshore? Time will tell. There is a bit of an offset in the latitudes.
Low pressure area south of Pensacola, Mobile,AL radar loop
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 04 2010 06:58 PM)
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danielw
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010
VALID JUL 04/1200 UTC THRU JUL 08/0000 UTC
...SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/12Z
THE 12Z HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER BUT REMAINS SLOWER AND
GENERALLY DEEPER THAN THE 12Z /12Z UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z
APPEARS TO BE A FAST Y OUTLIER...ESP WITH ITS ENERGY ALOFT. THE
06Z WAS MORE REASONABLE AND IN BETTER LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/UKMET CAMP. THE 12Z GEM GLOB APPEARS TO BE DEEP OUTLIER
ALOFT...AND PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON A NEW GULF LOW ON DAY 2/3 THAT
TRACKS TWD THE GULF COAST WHICH IS NOT AT ALL SUPPORTED BY THE
OTHER GLOBAL MDLS. THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE OVERALL THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND ALSO CONTINUING
TO REFLECT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE
CURRENT LOW INTO SWRN LA TWD THE END OF DAY 1. HOWEVER...THE UKMET
SFC PRESSURES MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE PD...AND TO
THAT EXTENT A BLEND WITH THE IS SUGGESTED WHICH IS A BIT
WEAKER.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WNH/PMDHMD
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Wingman51
Weather Guru
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Perhaps the lead on this forum should be " Watching 4 areas" - - Afternoon update now lists 3 "yellow: and 1 Orange area
Edited by danielw (Mon Jul 05 2010 05:27 AM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Looks like 95l has made a comeback...large ball of convection over it this morning
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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