Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just another statistical analysis of past seasons to give you something to ponder over while we wait for the next storm to develop. With one named storm in June (Alex) and one in July (Bonnie) and nothing likely to form before July comes to an end, I was curious as to how many past seasons had experienced a similar start (one in June and one in July) and what the final totals had been for those similar seasons.
Well there were 13 seasons with a similar start, but I discarded 1974 because it started with three straight subtropical storms - not even close to matching the environment for this season. The remaining 12 seasons with storm totals and the date of the third named storm were:
1888 - 9 - 8/14 (Hurricane - Florida & Louisiana)
1893 - 12 - 8/13 Hurricane - Nova Scotia)
1899 - 9 - 8/3 (Hurricane - North Carolina / 4th storm on 8/29 - Hurricane - Northern Leewards & Haiti)
1912 - 7 - 9/2 (TS - TD in Georgia)
1924 - 11 - 8/16 (Hurricane - Cape Cod & Nova Scotia)
1931 - 9 - 8/10 (TS - British Honduras)
1945 - 11 - 8/1 (TS - Guadelope & Dominican Republic / 4th storm on 8/17 - TS - Central Bahamas)
1946 - 6 - 8/25 (TS - Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico)
1954 - 11 - 8/25 (Hurricane Carol - Cape Hatteras, Long Island, Southern New England)
1956 - 8 - 8/9 (Hurricane Betsy - Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Bahamas)
1964 - 12 - 8/5 (TS Abby - Palacios, Texas)
1975 - 9 - 8/24 (Hurricane Caroline - Laguna Morales, Mexico)
Since a storm in the first few days of August does not seem likely this season, I've also listed the fourth storm for a couple of the seasons listed above.
There are a couple of interesting observations:
1) When a season starts with one storm in June and one storm in July, the third storm of the season always hits somewhere.
2) The lowest seasonal total was 6 and the highest was 12 (the average was 10).
Based on early season storm tracks, the seasons that seemed to be similar to this one were 1954, 1931 and 1899 (in that order). Its worth repeating that these are statistics derived from the climatological record of storms in past seasons - and records eventually are broken. The best statistical fit for the next storm date is August 15th (plus or minus 2 days).
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
|
|
Quote:
There are a couple of interesting observations:
1) When a season starts with one storm in June and one storm in July, the third storm of the season always hits somewhere.
Well there is another statistic that is no longer true (assuming, of course, that Colin is indeed done).
ED
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