MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Latest vis pics indicate an eye feature. Paula is a very small storm and looks to be moving due North now. Waiting for the 1400 EDT intermediate advisory.
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Michael
PWS
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Bloodstar
Moderator
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Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
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I suspect they'd hold back from making it a category 2 right now. at least until they got more data showing winds of that level. (in case it was a meso scale event in the eyewall and not representative of the entire storm) Add in the ragged eyewall appearance and they may justify keeping it at high end cat 1 for the 2pm advisory.
EDIT: Well never mind. 100MPH winds and 981 pressure.
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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Oct 12 2010 01:42 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Yep. After being overly conservative on the formation of Paula, I guess they've decided to go with the flow, now. 
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Michael
PWS
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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We're now recording Cancun radar for the long term Paula approach
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?95
For comparison, you can see 2005 's Cancun radar recording at
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
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Mike V
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?
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Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Quote:
For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?
There's some discussion of this in the forecast lounge, but in general it's still not likely to affect S. Florida much, or if it did reach it would be on the weak side due to shear and fast moving, so likely not too much of a flood threat.
You can see the shear in the Gulf on the system now with the Water vapor loop. This would force it to the east quickly and tear up the system.
The system is in the cone, and some of the suite and models have it approaching S. Florida, but the majority of everything else keeps it far to the south. It's a small system and uncertainty is high, that fact alone makes it worth watching closely.
But in general, for south Florida, since it is in the "cone" it is worth watching, but right now it still isn't very likely to do much.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Post deleted by author after reading Mike's analysis
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doug
Edited by doug (Tue Oct 12 2010 03:31 PM)
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Weather Mania
Registered User
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Wow, you guys are all so knowledgeable, I love to track storms but good googly moogly, you guys are good!
Didn't mean to be off topic, I was just very impressed!
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Weather Mania
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Mike V
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
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Mike_C
Thanks for the reply. I scour your forums here regularly during the season, hence my question. I'm not much of a weather guru, what I know I got from Flight training many years ago. I can read a map and have an idea of what is going on, but that is about it.
Mike V
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Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The 5PM forecast track takes it into western Cuba, and hurricane warnings are up for there. It then shoots off to the east, which is likely. Chances for a Florida impact are even lower than before.
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k___g
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Leesburg, FL
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Looking at the upper level winds and the shear in the Gulf...all should be well for Florida. The Gulf is basically shut off from any systems at the present time. Hopefully, this will end the 2010 season!!! 
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Hard to believe Paula has survived the night with its core circulation still quite intact. Morning satellite today does not yet offer evidence of shear having taken its toll - yet. Such however should start occuring really quite soon. Best chance for Paula to maintain a fair amount of its current structure ( and strength ) would be for it to soon make that move to the northeast. If the storm can maintain its deep convection and the faster its forward motion is, then the longer Paula will perhaps be able to hang on to any semblance of a minimal hurricane or tropical storm. This mornings models have all shifted northward and will be interesting to see where Paula is at 1800Z today, as compared to the next forecast point of 21.5N and 85.8W ( at approx. 1:00pm this afternoon ). Finally, it is interesting to note that looking at the current water vapor loop of Florida and the Caribbean, the mid level ridging over East/Central Caribbean appears to be expanding westward ( and possibly slightly northward ), basically filling in Paola's wake.
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Quick update here, late Wed. a.m. Somehow Paula maintaining itself; perhaps even expanding slightly. Recent a.m. soundings at Cancun at 200-300mb showing under 20 knots wind. Storm is slowing down some, perhaps starting its NE turn
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2010 11:58 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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CAUTION:
NRL tropical cyclone products are not updating as off 12:18 EDT today.
The buttons indicate they are updated. But the images, that I checked, are from yesterday.
Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2010 12:21 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Paula is being ravaged by shear, and it looks like the end is beginning
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doug
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.
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cieldumort
Moderator
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Quote:
Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.
This observation is both correct and incorrect, depending on perspective.
Much of the bad weather associated with Paula is indeed still heading NE, rather than ENE. This is due to the very strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing deep convection away from the tropical cyclone, and up to the northeast. In addition, a remnant boundary cuts across south of Florida, serving to enhance lift, and giving even more of an appearance that "Paula" is northeast of where she has been forecast to be at this time.
Despite all this this, the center of Paula's actual low level circulation has been starting to turn ENE, as advertised. In fact, there are even a few hints that the center of Paula may already be starting to feel the first of possibly many pushes to the east, which may ultimately end up being pushes to the ESE, SE and even S.
You can make out Paula's low level center much better using Visible satellite images. Water vapor images are actually often a poor choice when attempting to determine where a surface cyclone's center is.
This link can take you to a very good Visible loop of Paula (time-sensitive).
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010
SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE
THAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL
DEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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For disscusion of 99L heating up in the western Carib follow links to forum page.
Hurric
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