cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Monday October 25, 2010 7:00AM EDT Update
Richard actually showed a clear eye over land last night, but has since lost that feature. It is forecast to weaken into a depression before emerging in the Bay of Campeche. It has a very small chance to restrengthen again before heading into shear and likely dissipating.
Outside of this, 90L seems unlikely to develop, and the next potential area may be the eastern Caribbean this weekend or next week, but this is the time of year where development chances start to drop off rapidly and Richard has a fair chance that it may stand as the last storm of the 2010 season.
Sunday October 24, 2010 9:00PM EDT Update
From :
RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICHARD
MADE LANDFALL AROUND 745 PM CDT...0045 UTC...ALONG THE COAST OF
BELIZE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 90
MPH...150 KM/HR.
Sunday October 24, 2010 3:00PM EDT Update
Relatively compact Hurricane Richard is taking advantage of much-improved atmospheric conditions, and strengthening even more as he heads towards a likely landfall along the coast of Belize later today, or tonight.
At 2:00 EDT, Richard was a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with maximum sustained winds of around 85MPH, and intensifying. Richard is now expected to become a low-end Category 2 hurricane prior to landfall. Given the current trends, Richard will likely make landfall with a core of dangerously high winds within the eyewall, and it is not out of the question that Richard even becomes a major hurricane before moving onshore.
Interests along and near the coast of Belize and the southern Yucatan may want to be rushing any last hurricane preparations to completion at this time.
Saturday October 23, 2010 1:30PM EDT Update
Richard is moving again, having completed an anticyclonic loop, and is now traversing waters just offshore of the northeastern coast of Honduras, heading west at roughly 8MPH. A general west to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue over the weekend, and the suggests hurricane warnings may be hoisted for Belize as soon as later today.
Richard has undergone a phase of rapid intensification this morning, and is now an upper-end Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained winds running about 65MPH. Being a relatively small tropical cyclone, Richard has some potential to continue to ramp up fairly rapidly prior to landfall, at least in bursts, although the current best thinking keeps the cyclone below Cat 2 at landfall.
Interests along the Caribbean nations of Honduras and Belize may want to begin rushing preparations to completion for the potential of strong tropical storm and hurricane conditions this weekend.
Friday October 22, 2010 8:00 AM EDT Update
The early model runs have settled down to more of a westerly solution, which keeps the system over the Yucatan longer, but brings more risk to Belize. Richard itself hasn't moved much and is nearly stationary.
The forecast track today keeps it over the Yucatan longer, and puts the system out closer toward the western Gulf. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty since the system has not really moved much.
If the system enters the western Gulf of Mexico it will likely be sheared apart. There are still quite a few questions with Richard, so it will need to be monitored into next week. Those in Belize, Nicaragua, Honduras, and the Yucatan will need to continue to watch Richard closely.
Two other waves in the east Atlantic have small chances to develop, the far eastern one (90L) has a 30% chance, while the central Atlantic has a 10% chance. Having these this far east in October is unusual. Both will likely stay out to sea, however.
Thursday October 21, 2010 11:00 AM EDT Update
Richard has been upgraded, the forecast track has shifted a bit north, spending less time over the Yucatan, but with high uncertainty toward the end of the track. It will likely trend further eastward.
No watches and warnings have been issued.
Thursday October 21, 2010 7:00 AM EDT Update
TD#19 is drifting around in the western Caribbean, but forecast to move over the Yucatan closer to Monday as a hurricane, those in the Yucatan will want to watch this system very closely, and possibly Florida later.
If the forecast verifies, after weakening over the Yucatan it may have a chance to enter the southern Gulf, and from there possibly affect the north central or northwestern Gulf, a large high pressure should keep it west of Florida, again if it does make it into the Gulf shear will likely affect it adversely and keep the system weak.
If the system moves further north more quickly than forecast it could maintain hurricane strength and approach Florida from the west, so it will be worth watching in that scenario. If this situation were to occur, it would probably be near the 26th..
Based on the official forecast, the Yucatan has the most to worry from the system, and beyond some rainfall for a portion of the gulf coast west of Florida seems most likely, but there will be plenty of time to watch the system over the coming days.
A big however, though, some of the models are suggest it could stay east of the Yucatan or just briefly over which would allow it to stay as a hurricane and possibly impact the eastern Gulf and Florida. This currently isn't as likely, but is currently trending that way, and is worth watching out for. See the TD#19 Forecast Lounge for more model discussions.
An area southeast of the Cape Verde islands has a short lived, but small chance, of organization, about 10% over the next few days. This is currently being tracked as invest 90L.
Wednesday October 20, 2010 11:30PM EDT
The Low in the western Caribbean (Invest 99L) is now officially Tropical Depression 19, having been just upgraded as such by .
19 is expected to continue generally east a bit, and then make a fairly sharp U-Turn, heading back towards central America, in the near-term. While doing so, 19 is expected to intensify to a mid-range Tropical Storm. However, both forecast track and intensity are perhaps a little less certain than usual, and some models actually support a stronger cyclone, with an eventual track to the northwest, or even north, by next week, and this is reflected in the current official 5-Day cone of uncertainty, which has 19 pushing into Belize or the Yucatan over the weekend.
Interests in the western Caribbean may want to be taking some initial precautions for the potential of a named storm making landfall sometime this weekend.
Ciel
Edited by MikeC (Mon Oct 25 2010 07:01 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON is airborne and nearing the outer fringes of TD 19.
NHC hinted at a possible upgrade to Tropical Storm in the latest Discussion. They are waiting on RECON data to justify what is being seen on satellite images.
Latest 5 Day track forecast takes TD 19 or the remnants into the Southern GOM.
Track models vary from the Bahamas on the eastern side to the Western GOM on the west side, with a gap currently in the central GOM.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Recon / Best Track is indicating that TD#19 is now Tropical Storm Richard, so it will likely be upgraded at 11AM.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Based on the latest RECON data a probable upgrade to Tropical Storm status at the 10 AM EDT Advisory.
Mis.Num. Agency
02 AF 10/20
Time 16:47:40Z
Lowest
Surface Pressure 1009mb (~29.80 inHg)(extrapolated)
Highest Inbound Flt. Lvl. Wind (Item F.) 26kts(~29.9mph)
Highest Max Flt. Wind (from Rmrks) 26kts(~29.9mph)
Highest Surface Wind 30kts(~34.5mph)
decoded data courtesy of tropicalatlantic.com
Mike just said that, didn't he? 
Edited by danielw (Thu Oct 21 2010 09:51 AM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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Once again the seems to have the best handle on this system, similar to all the others this year. I am very impressed this year with the accuracy of the models, unlike previous years.
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doug
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It doesn't even appear likely that Central Florida will even get any moisture/rain from Richard and we really, really need some rainfall. Does anyone know of a site/forum that discusses ongoing weather throughout the year? I know, the mundane is comparatively boring to the extremes, but the ever changing weather really is never boring when you get right down to it. 
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Michael
PWS
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
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Loc: Lakeland, FL
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It actually rained tonight while I was at work, and driving home at 1AM this morning I saw where the roads were wet at various points around downtown Lakeland. Just enough to make the roads slippery, but just about any rain would be welcome at this point. Don't know if Richie had anything to do with it though. Speaking of the former, he's emerged into the BOC now, and is just a swirl of dry air clouds. Would be interesting to see how long the swirl of circulation lasts, and whether or not (shockingly if the former to me) convection fires up around the center.
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